South Africa’s producer inflation data index rose by 5,5% year-on-year (y/y) in February — unchanged from January’s rate, Statistics South Africa said on Thursday.
The producer price index (PPI) rose by 0,2% on a monthly basis after January’s monthly decrease of 0,1%.
According to an I-Net Bridge survey of economists, the expected range was from 4,9% to 5,9% with a median of 5,5% year-on-year.
Johan Rossouw, economist at Vector Securities, commented: “It’s better than expected, but I can’t say anything beyond that as I haven’t seen the detail.”
Said Annabel Bishop, economist at Investec: “PPI inflation came out as expected. We believe PPI inflation will ease in March and then drop back below 4% by mid year. We still believe interest rates will remain unchanged over 2006.”
Colen Garrow, economist at Brait, said: “Generally I think the trend in inflation is slightly higher, but this figure is not going to spook the markets too much. The trend is higher and the [South African] Reserve Bank has already cautioned the market about the direction of interest rates. We have to adjust inflation expectations and therefore interest-rate expectations.”
Garrow said the imported component was a “bit on the high side” at 6,9%, “and I think we need to watch it. If you look at the rand over the past couple of months, it has been on the weaker side, which will weigh on imported inflation, which means domestic producers should recoup some of their price advantage.”
According to George Glynos, market analyst at ETM, “the PPI figure was broadly in line with pipeline pressures, proving to be slightly inflationary, and confirmed that the South African Reserve Bank is justified in its cautious stance on interest rates”.
“PPI is currently above CPI and that reflects that there could be inflationary pressures,” said Glynos. “The oil price is going up and it is not clear whether inflationary pressures have peaked.
“The strong rand during January and February has mitigated the increases in the imported component of PPI. For the next 12 to 18 months, interest rates are likely to stay flat.”
Tebogo Hlabioa, economist at Metropolitan Asset Managers, commented: “This was obviously lower than what we’d anticipated, but it’s not surprising and is in line with market expectations.
“If you look at the imported prices, you’ll notice that they might have been due to higher oil prices in February. Otherwise this is very good. Going forward, our view is that the lower inflation figures support an interest-rate cut in the second half of the year.” — I-Net Bridge