/ 15 May 2006

Darfur peace still a distant prospect, experts say

The road to peace in Sudan’s strife-torn western region of Darfur remains long, experts say, with deep tribal differences yet to be overcome and a near-impossible disarmament task.

A peace agreement was reached ten days ago in Abuja between the Sudanese government and the largest faction of the main Darfur rebel group — the Sudan Liberation Movement (SLM) — raising hopes of an end to the three-year-old bloodshed.

But Hassan Mekki, professor of political science at the African University in Khartoum, argued the deal is of little significance without the adherence of the Fur tribe, which accounts for 35% of Darfur’s population.

Yet the SLM branch, led by the movement’s founder and Fur tribal leader Abdel Wahid Mohammed al-Nur, has so far refused to sign the accord, despite mounting pressure by the international community.

”The Fur feel they have been short-changed in the conflict and in the peace agreement, and so they are trying to make themselves heard by the international community,” Mekki explained.

”If Nur doesn’t jump on the peace bandwagon, this will mean that a large portion of the Fur will be excluded,” a Khartoum-based Western diplomat said.

Some reports indicate that Nur’s dissident faction was involved in the violent clashes that broke out with police in camps for displaced Darfuris since the peace deal was inked in Nigeria on May 5.

The faction, represented by SLM leader and peace-agreement signatory Minni Minnawi, controls military power among the rebels, but his Zaghawa tribe is smaller in size.

Minnawi’s own faction appeared divided after his political adviser sent a letter to the main international brokers, charging the agreement was incomplete and demanding it be frozen.

Yet Nur’s own camp is not speaking in one voice either, and 16 of his top lieutenants said on the day of the signing that they intended to support the peace initiative.

The Darfur conflict erupted in February 2003 when rebels complaining of marginalisation by Khartoum and demanding a better share of their land’s resources took up arms.

The government brutally repressed their uprising and the combined effect of war and famine has left an estimated 300 000 people dead and some 2,4-million displaced.

Another major obstacle is the point of the peace agreement that provides for ”complete and verifiable” disarmament of the Janjaweed, Khartoum’s proxy militia, which stands accused by Washington of carrying out genocide.

The disarmament of the marauding pro-Arab gunmen was due to kick off on Monday and be completed by mid-October.

The agreement provides for a disarmament of the marauding militias before the rebel groups start turning in their own weapons and disband.

”It would be very naive to believe that the Janjaweed will disarm before the rest and that the rebels will take it for granted or have means of ‘verifying’ it,” the diplomat said.

Mekki was even more pessimistic about the chances of disarmament in a region the size of France, where tribes have traditionally been heavily armed.

”Even an international force could not disarm the Janjaweed, because they would react very negatively to this and we would be left with an Iraqi scenario on our hands,” he explained.

He also argued that the provisions in the peace deal urging the rebel movements to disarm, disband and join the ranks of the regular army are unrealistic.

”There are an estimated 500 000 armed men in Darfur while the government forces only number 150 000,” he said.

Experts agree that the fragile agreement reached under huge United States pressure in Abuja needs to be propped up with a Darfur reconciliation conference.

”An inter-Darfur conference should be held as soon as possible to iron out tribal differences, because the conflict has shattered the traditional pattern of relations [in Darfur], and tribal leaders need to work together,” political analyst Mohammed al-Hassan wrote in the Al-Rai Al-Aam daily.

”The political negotiators in Abuja are not really representative of the people on the ground, so the agreement is a springboard to begin Darfur-Darfur dialogue with parties on the ground,” another Western diplomat said. — AFP

 

AFP