/ 22 May 2006

Montenegro independence could help Balkan stability

Analysts in the disputed Serbian province of Kosovo say Montenegro’s independence is likely to contribute to stability in the historically volatile Balkans.

The outcome could finally encourage Belgrade to focus on its own problems, after its involvement in the brutal wars of the early 1990s that tore apart former communist Yugoslavia, they add.

“A new status for Montenegro would have an impact not only in Kosovo, but [also in] the entire Balkans as the referendum was a necessary step in the process of the dissolution of the former Yugoslavia,” said analyst Milazim Krasniqi.

Krasniqi said Sunday’s referendum in Montenegro was in the interests of Kosovo, as well as the rest of the Balkans.

On Monday, preliminary results announced by referendum commission officials showed a narrow majority of Montenegrins voted to split from Serbia, dismantling the last vestiges of the former Yugoslavia.

Analyst Fadil Maloku said he was confident that the independence of Montenegro would help to improve security in the region.

“Independence is the only option for Montenegro’s needs at present,” Maloku said.

“The process of divorce between Serbia and Montenegro is unstoppable, as is the one between Kosovo and Serbia,” said the Kosovo analyst.

Kosovo has been run by the United Nations since 1999, when a Nato air war drove out forces loyal to then Serbian leader Slobodan Milosevic pursuing a crackdown against ethnic Albanian separatists.

UN-backed talks between Belgrade and Pristina are due to resolve its status by the year’s end.

Serbia hopes Kosovo can remain within its borders, while the province’s Albanian population demands independence.

Although vigorously rejecting any link between the fate of Montenegro and Kosovo, ethnic Albanian politicians say the referendum in the tiny Adriatic republic represented democratic progress in the region.

“We absolutely do not link the question of Kosovo’s status with the status of other countries,” Kosovo President Fatmir Sejdiu said recently.

“Kosovo’s status is a result of the political will of the people here,” Sejdiu added.

“We respect the will of the people in Montenegro. Their verdict will be considered by us as a result of their political will.”

Kosovo Prime Minister Agim Ceku said the possible independence of Kosovo would depend on Montenegro.

“But their independence would bring about the final dissolution of the former Yugoslavia,” said Ceku.

Kosovo newspapers have said the referendum, if confirmed, would only formalise the reality of the republic’s independence.

“Serbia lost its opportunity to keep Montenegro and Kosovo any more,” said Krasniqi.

“Serbia will get the most direct message to give up its imperial ambitions … and have a huge state in the Balkans,” he said. — AFP