For a Mogadishu port worker, an Islamic group’s takeover of most of southern Somalia means he can haul cargo without fear of rampaging militiamen.
At the other end of the economic scale, a Coke executive is just as eager to grasp a chance at normalcy in a country that has known little but violence for more than a decade.
The Islamic militia’s surprise victory earlier this month over the ruthless warlords who controlled Somalia’s capital for 15 years has brought together clerics interested in enforcing Islamic law, secular business people looking to reach international markets and civic leaders anxious to break the chaotic status quo.
But no one can say for sure what will come next.
In Mogadishu, supporters of the Islamic Courts Union, the umbrella group behind the militia, reject comparisons with the Taliban, the fundamentalist militia that united Afghanistan and provided refuge to Osama bin Laden and his al-Qaeda terror network.
The union’s leaders deny accusations by the United States that some members have been harbouring al-Qaeda terror suspects.
Instead, they describe a popular uprising against the warlords, who had divided the city. When the warlords began fighting again, the people called on the Islamic courts, which had for years provided the only semblance of law and order in the country, supporters said.
”There was no other option,” said Khadija Ali, a Somali-American doctoral student in conflict resolution at George Mason University, who spends part of the year in Somalia.
The Islamic militiamen’s rapid victory across most of southern Somalia surprised even them, she said.
”These guys were not prepared for this change, they did not have a plan, so it is overwhelming,” Ali said, adding that she has been advising them on international relations.
”Most of them are inexperienced in politics,” she added. ”Many people in the courts are traditional Somalis and they don’t have much experience internationally, so they don’t know what the West expects them to do.”
While the newly empowered clerics and the rest of the world get to know each other, Somalis have for the most part welcomed the elimination of roadblocks manned by drug-addled teens who extorted money on warlords’ orders and robbed, raped and killed with impunity.
Elmer Mahmoud Mohammed, a 52-year-old worker at el-Maan port, said he was thrilled now that the warlords and their militiamen were gone.
”It is much better, it is quiet, there is no war,” he said, standing on the beach where almost all of Somalia’s imports are brought ashore by small barges and more than 10 000 labourers.
At a new $7-million (€5,54-million) Coca-Cola bottling plant, acting general manager Mohammed Hassan Awale said the end of the warlord era was good for business.
”I have seen a very big change here,” he said.
”Before we had gunmen accompanying our distributors, now no guns are needed. If there is peace, there is opportunity for work, for business and people will have money to buy Coke.”
The chairperson of the Islamic Courts Union, Sheik Sharif Sheik Ahmed, has said that the courts do not intend to form a government.
”The final solution is with the Somali people, they are the ones who are responsible for the future,” he said. On Wednesday, he sent a delegation to attend Arab League-sponsored talks with the largely powerless, United Nations-backed transitional government currently based in Baidoa, 250km north-west of the capital, Mogadishu.
Many Somalis expect little from the Arab League initiative because their weak transitional government — which includes some of the warlords involved in past violence — and the Islamic leaders have taken sharply opposing positions.
Somalia’s transitional president, threatened by the military and political ascendancy of the Islamic group, has charged it was backed by international extremists, echoing US accusations some of its leaders are linked to al-Qaeda.
”We have to make concessions for the common good of Somalia,” said Ahmed, adding, however, that his group will not accept government plans to welcome foreign peacekeepers to stabilise the country.
The fault lines in Somali society are many, complicated and deep. The dominant clans in the Islamic Courts Union are the Abgal and Ayr, which themselves are subdivided several times down to individual families. These clans have fought before and many fear will again.
Powerful business people also compete across and within clan lines for resources and markets. Many of the clerics disagree on the proper interpretation of Islam.
And there is a wide gulf in outlook and expectations between the elite with foreign passports and the poor who are happy if they can manage a meal a day.
The Islamic Courts Union so far has appealed to almost all of them. But in a country where anarchy and violence has been the norm and many potentially explosive issues remain unresolved, most Somalis are waiting to see if the country returns to civil war.
Ali said the international community must quickly demand peace talks that include the transitional government, the Islamic court leaders, the business community and civil society.
Now that the warlords have been defeated, all Somalis must work together to form a new government, she said.
The Islamic courts ”couldn’t do anything without the business sector and civil society. Now the movement should have the face of all three sectors of society,” she said. ”If it is only the Islamic courts who have power, then the radicals will succeed.”
She said she has been trying to recruit business people and civic leaders to join the courts to add a nonreligious aspect to the forces who have taken power in Mogadishu, but it’s been difficult.
”I talked to some of my friends in civil society and they say, ‘I run a non-governmental organisation, I don’t want to get involved in politics,”’ she said. ”I say to them, ‘This isn’t about politics, this is about survival, this is about saving Somalia.”’ – Sapa-AP