The faltering peace process in the Côte d’Ivoire represents a crucial test for the African Union (AU), an analyst said recently after Ivorian rebels rejected South African President Thabo Mbeki, the AU-appointed mediator, as biased.
“The Côte d’Ivoire, Somalia and Darfur are the three crucial tests of the new AU,” says Richard Cornwall, senior African analyst at the Institute for Security Studies. “Each of these three issues will really test the diplomatic ability of the AU. If it fails any of these tests the organisation’s peace and security architecture is going to be in bad, bad shape.”
Mbeki travelled to the Côte d’Ivoire this week in an attempt to put the peace process back on track. Elections scheduled to take place at the end of next month are now likely to be delayed, and the question of whether or not Ivorian President Laurent Gbagbo’s mandate should be extended beyond that date is one of the main sticking points.
Two possibilities to get out of the current impasse are now being aired. They are to give additional powers to Prime Minister Charles Konan Banny, or to force Gbagbo to accept a government that includes several vice-presidents from the various factions. However, since both scenarios involve a dilution of Gbagbo’s powers they are unlikely to be acceptable to him. It remains to be seen whether Gbagbo will attend the next round of talks in Abuja on October 7.
The New Forces rebel group has written to AU president Denis Sassou-Nguesso, the President of the Republic of Congo, asking for the AU to appoint a new mediator.
This is not the first time that the New Forces has demanded that Mbeki be replaced. The AU has not responded.