The murder rate in Rosebank, Johannesburg, is up by 100% on last year — from one murder to two. Nearby Parkview also recorded two murders last year.
This underlines the fact that South Africa’s high national murder rate — 39,5 per 100 000, down from 47,4 five years ago — conceals wild variations from area to area.
The latest police statistics show 284 murders in Cape Town’s Nyanga, 242 in KwaMashu and 199 in Umlazi, near Durban.
The Western Cape is South Africa’s murder province, with 59,2 murders per 100 000, followed by the Eastern Cape (52,9) and KwaZulu-Natal (50,2). But in rural Limpopo, the rate is 12,5 per 100 000.
According to Rosebank’s deputy commissioner, Captain Gerhard Steyn, his policing area covers five suburbs that are home to 50 000 residents with a daily influx of between 5 000 and 10 000.
Parkview has recorded eight murders in the past four years, the same number as in 2001/02. The station serves 195 000 people, putting its murder rate at one per 100 000 — about that of the European Union.
High levels of security could be seen as the reason for the low murder rate in suburbs such as Rosebank and Parkview. But some major townships also show relatively low absolute murder numbers.
Soweto, Naledi, Protea Glen and Jabulani are among Johannesburg’s safest suburbs, ranking with the formerly white areas of Sandton, Sandringham and Linden.
Internationally, the Russian and Brazilian murder rates of about 20 per 100 000 seem typical. In the United States the rate is 5,5, down from about 10 a few years ago. This also masks large variations, however, with Washington scoring 35.
In South Africa, police figures show that in 81% of murders the perpetrator is known to the victim, in 61% of cases he or she is a relative, friend or acquaintance, and in 20% of cases a relative. In short, of the 18 528 people murdered last year, the victim knew the murderer in about 15 000 cases.
Alcohol is likely to be a factor, as indicated by the time of day (after hours) and day of the week (Saturday).
The police argue that traditional policing cannot prevent such crime. The distribution of murders highlights the role of social instability in crime-ridden areas, including migration and urbanisation.
Crime is also linked to a range of economic indicators, including inadequate housing and education. It mirrors unemployment and poverty, and is never far from alcohol abuse.