When more than 1 200 Eastern Cape ANC branch delegates descend on Fort Hare University, Alice, next week, the heart and soul of the 94-year-old liberation movement will be up for grabs.
The Eastern Cape ANC conference will have a major impact on the struggle over who will succeed Thabo Mbeki as party president and, ultimately, who will lead South Africa when Mbeki steps down in 2009.
New provincial party leaders will be elected at the meeting. Whoever emerges as the chairperson, replacing incumbent former provincial premier, Sports and Recreation Minister Makhenkesi Stofile, is expected to swing the provincial vote at the ANC national conference in December next year.
One of the candidates, Mcebisi Jonas, former director of the Eastern Cape Development Corporation, is seen to be aligned with ANC deputy president Jacob Zuma. The Mbeki candidate is Stone Sizani, chairperson of the ANC’s Nelson Mandela (Port Elizabeth) region and former provincial education minister. Ironically, both were fired or forced to resign by Eastern Cape Premier Nosimo Balindlela.
The rifts mirror the infighting that has dominated ANC structures across the country.
It is generally accepted that any candidate hoping to launch a serious campaign for the national ANC’s top job should have a home base in the Eastern Cape or KwaZulu-Natal.
But, for the past 40 years, the Eastern Cape has ruled, with Albert Luthuli, who died in 1967, being the last president born outside the province. Since then, a significant number of the party’s national executive committee members have also come from the Eastern Cape.
With 655 delegates, the province fielded close to a quarter of the total number of delegates at the Stellenbosch conference in 2002. KwaZulu-Natal came in second, fielding 393.
KwaZulu-Natal has been weakened by disorder at branch level, a problem that has dogged ANC branches nationally. Despite the province’s leadership struggles Eastern Cape branches are said to be in good standing.
It is this that explains how the Eastern Cape, with 70 000 members, sends more delegates to the national conference than KwaZulu-Natal, with 75 000. The province is also home to the ANC’s biggest region, OR Tambo (Mthatha), with 25 000 members — almost the same membership as that of the entire Northern or Western Cape.
The four-day conference, from November 30 to December 3, will centre on the struggle for the chairmanship. With the backing of four regions — Amathole, Nelson Mandela, Cacadu and Alfred Nzo — of the province’s seven, fervent Mbeki admirer Sizani appears to have his nose in front.
It was Amathole, the second biggest region in the Eastern Cape, with more than 17 000 members, which first called on Mbeki to make himself available for a third term as party president.
But intense lobbying and horse-trading are expected, as the Zuma camp has the backing of the SACP and Cosatu, which have enormous mobilising power in the province.
The OR Tambo, Chris Hani and Ukhahlamba regions are behind Jonas and, therefore, behind Zuma. After a visit by Zuma to the OR Tambo region in August, they called for a review of Mbeki’s powers to appoint premiers and executive mayors.
Jonas also has the backing of Stofile, whose dramatic chairmanship contests with Deputy Defence Minister Mluleki George have dominated past conferences.
Stofile is still an influential figure, having thumped George on two occasions and hung on to the chairmanship for 10 years. George is known to support Sizani.
Conflict is also expected over the position of provincial secretary, which will be vacated by Humphrey Maxhegwana. As part of their ongoing struggle to reclaim the ANC from Mbeki, Zuma and his left-wing backers have thrown their weight behind Phumulo Masualle, the SACP’s provincial secretary and a former provincial minister of public works.
Masualle will go head-to-head with former ANC chief whip Mbulelo Goniwe, who faces disciplinary action by Luthuli House. Goniwe grabbed headlines for the wrong reasons after allegations that he sexually harassed a 21-year-old parliamentary intern and failed to pay maintenance for his love child.
Four regions — Amathole, Nelson Mandela, Cacadu and Alfred Nzo — have nominated Goniwe for the provincial secretary’s position.
If Goniwe is prevented from standing, Masualle will face provincial ANC spokesperson Mahlubandile Qwase for the position.