We are headed into a supersonic political year.
By the end of 2007, the ruling party will have chosen a new president of the organisation and, more than likely, the person who will become the country’s next president. At a more fundamental level, certain decisions will have been taken that affect the quality and direction of our democracy and the economy.
South Africans and interested observers looking to determine which way the wind will blow should keep an eye on a range of conferences over the course of the year, including provincial meetings at which it will be possible to gauge the chances of ANC deputy president Jacob Zuma. Above all, the key marker is likely to be the mid-year ANC policy conference, because whoever eventually becomes president will need to implement party policy.
Mistakenly, the race for the top job in government is played in the media as one of Zuma versus incumbent Thabo Mbeki. That’s a misnomer since the race is really between Zuma (or even, it increasingly appears, a substitute for Zuma) and an Mbeki anointee.
The president has been weakened politically by the events of the past year, and his stated ambition to have a woman succeed him appears more and more remote. It is likely that candidates who see themselves as presidential material will seek his support in the coming months.
The succession debate is quite healthy, if the beginning of the year is anything to go by. Despite the standard round of denials, businessperson Tokyo Sexwale has apparently thrown his hat into the race. Will he become the presidential apprentice? Impossible to say, but even if he is rejected as a political lightweight, his candidacy is good news because it may give impetus to others to do the same. The bigger the race, the stronger the eventual winner is likely to be.
And the louder the contest, the better. It’s the best possible outcome that our succession has not been neatly tied up by Mbeki as a fait accompli. While he’s been a good president, his disaffection for public debate and dissent has damaged the ANC. The turning point came at the 2005 national general council, when Mbeki was forced to climb down from suspending Zuma from party activities. This let the genie out of the bottle. Since then, all the ANC’s big debates and fights have been more or less slugged out in the open. With a ruling party that governs with a huge majority, the more we see, the better.
Zuma’s star appears to be on the wane. He moves around in presidential style with a large convoy and several well-dressed bodyguards, but last year we reported that his Friends of Jacob Zuma Trust was having great difficulty meeting its funding targets.
He lost a great deal of support after his performance in court during his rape trial last year; and he does not enjoy unanimous support among the trade unions and the South African Communist Party. Late last year Zuma’s supporters failed to win the leadership of the ANC in the bellwether Eastern Cape. And his key allied support bases in Cosatu, the SACP and the ANC Youth League are under internal challenge.
Cosatu general secretary Zwelinzima Vavi and SACP general secretary Blade Nzimande have faced internal rebellion for their unquestioning support for Zuma. It’s unlikely, therefore, that Vavi will be able to pull off his threat of mass action should Zuma be charged with corruption by the National Prosecuting Authority this year. And if the NPA does lay charges, it is likely to be one of the final nails in the coffin of Zuma’s political ambitions. Ignore the dramatic protests his supporters will stage outside court; he will be damaged in the court of public opinion at home and internationally.
Does international opinion count? Perhaps not as much as it did in 1999, when Mbeki took over from the uhuru president, Nelson Mandela. The sturdy economy, a robust media and the independence of institutions have allayed foreign ”jitters”. It’s worth noting that the stock market has boomed and foreign investment grown even as we have been gripped by the most serious factional fighting in the ruling party since 1994.
But scratch the surface and there is genuine concern abroad about South Africa’s future. Observers wonder what kind of president we are going to elect and whether the ruling party is set to degenerate further into an arena for grabbing wealth and power. Listen carefully and you will hear the most senior ANC leaders reflecting this concern.
In a refreshingly forthright article in the November edition of the ANC journal Umrabulo, ANC national executive committee member Joel Netshitenzhe refers to some of these strains. ”…are we approaching a state of paralysis, stagnation and degeneration, where none of us can open our mouths, express a view on any matter, and critically raise an issue for debate, without our foreheads being branded with the label of being pro-this or anti-the-other? We may not be fully there yet, but the fact that elements of this have started to manifest themselves in our ranks signals a crisis in the making,” Netshitenzhe writes.
”In simple terms, the question is whether this generation of leaders and members wishes to carry on its shoulders the historical curse of having been the ones who destroyed, in an act of self-serving irrationality, a movement that is the hope of a nation and a continent.”
How will 2007 end? Democrats of all stripes should be interested and engaged. Too much is at stake to leave it to the 3 000-odd men and women who will choose the ruling party’s president 11 short months from now.
Whatever the outcome of this contest, 2007 will mark a turning point for South Africa. As the nation enters its adolescence (freedom turns 13 on April 27) we’re showing all the typical signs of growing pains and awkwardness.
Will our democratic institutions prove sustainable? Do the ruling party and the opposition have the wherewithal to deliver a depth of leadership to ensure that we get over the 20-year independence blues that have afflicted many post-independence African states? Will economic and social policies begin to eliminate the wealth gap and deliver a knockout blow to deep-rooted poverty and marginalisation?
By the end of the year we should have a better idea of how to answer these questions.
Ferial Haffajee is editor of the Mail & Guardian