/ 23 January 2007

What lies ahead

2007 promises to be an exciting one for the local media industry. The tacit jostling for space witnessed in the industry last year is likely to give way to more blatant moves, redefining the current national media landscape.

Some moves have been on the cards for some time and are easier to discern. First, Caxton’s attempts to acquire Johncom are likely to intensify, stoked by Johncom’s decision last November to divest from pay-television successes M-Net and Supersport. Next, the virtual explosion in new magazine launches – about 40 titles in October 2006 alone – is likely to continue, driven largely by falling production costs. But consolidation is also likely in this sector, if acquisition moves by media houses like the Mail & Guardian Group persist. Then there is the second national operator (SNO), from whom much is awaited.

But the main shows for the year will be in broadcasting and new media, where a number of critical developments are eagerly awaited. In broadcasting, the announcement is one or more pay-TV by ICASA in June will herald the end of DStv’s decade-old monopoly. Concomitantly, the roll out of a national digital terrestrial television (DTT) broadcast network by Sentech is expected to take off in earnest, taking SA out of the archaic analogue TV era and into digital broadcasting with capacity to carry more national and regional TV channels.

The new media wave, driven by changes introduced by the new Electronic Communications Act, might be a more interesting stage. A lot is on offer here: from decentralised communications infrastructure in SA’s major cities; bundling of voice, picture and data signals; to use of existing national electrical grid for broad- and narrow-casting and telecommunications.

For example, tests are currently underway in Pretoria and Durban to provide data (Internet connectivity and fax), voice (telephony) and visual (television) services as a single bundle, all provided via electrical powerlines. The technology, already in use in about 20 countries, boasts huge advantages of speed and cost over traditional providers like Telkom.

Elsewhere, mobile operators MTN and Vodacom are poring over results from their trial mobile TV services, running on the 3G technology called Digital Video Broadcasting – Handheld (DVB-H). The surprisingly user-friendly DVB-H allows 3G cellphones to receive crystal-clear, digital-quality broadcast television. Vodacom’s service is supported by Vodafone live, while MTN has partnered with Multichoice’s DStv. The latter option will be rolled out commercially as soon as Multichoice receives a subscription broadcasting licence from ICASA.

By the close of 2007, the SA media could well be terra étranger. Institutionally, further consolidation of the industry implies increased concentration of traditional media outlets. Yet, for once, this economic malaise will need to be understood against the backdrop of the massive convergence wave anticipated in the television, telephony and Internet connectivity sub-sectors.

At audience-level, however, John Naisbitt’s warning in Megatrends rings true: “We are drowning in information but starved for knowledge. This level of information is clearly impossible to be handled by present means. Uncontrolled and unorganised information is no longer a resource in an information society, instead it becomes the enemy.”

Such tumultuous times will inevitably have substantive policy effects. First among these is the TV licence, whose fundamental principle of supporting public broadcasting is about to banished into obsolescence. Of course, the SABC would prefer an interpretation that sees recipients of these mobile visual services (can these still be regarded as television?) needing individual licences.

ICASA will also be under pressure to decide on local content as well as advertising guidelines for the new services. But it is also possible that the watchdog’s role will be extended to pricing, accessibility, harmonisation of technology platform as well as channel and other flighting rights. Enjoy this show.