President Robert Mugabe’s ruling Zanu-PF party has been rocked by a controversial plan to extend his rule by two years, and analysts said despite resistance by some of his lieutenants, the veteran leader will eventually bulldoze the proposals through.
At its December conference, Zanu-PF noted a motion seeking to combine parliamentary and presidential elections, which critics say is a ploy to extend Mugabe’s term without going through an election.
The conference referred the issue back to its provinces for further consideration.
A meeting of Zanu-PF’s Communist-style Politburo a fortnight ago also agreed to give provinces more time to debate the issue, raising speculation that the motion to extend Mugabe’s term was not supported by his inner-circle officials.
But analysts said this week that while it was possible the move had drawn resistance, especially from factions bidding to succeed him, Mugabe had always prevailed using his system of patronage that rewards loyalists and punishes those opposed to his plans.
”It is possible Mugabe is not having his way . . . but it is premature for any strategists either in the opposition or elsewhere to think along the lines that there is a big division in Zanu-PF,” said Eldred Masunungure, chairperson of the University of Zimbabwe’s political science department.
He added: ”Even if it was true, [that Mugabe is losing support] Mugabe has a history of exaggerating external threats to Zanu-PF so that despite internal differences, the party closes ranks.”
Mugabe’s controversial plan to stay in office will see him extend his current term, which ends next year, to 2010. This has been met with outrage by the opposition parties and civic groups, who say Mugabe has become a liability.
Inflation is now at nearly 1 300%, and there is acute shortages of food, fuel and foreign currency.
Sources in Zanu-PF say under the plan, Mugabe — who turns 83 next week — would become a ceremonial head of state and seek a prime minister who is elected by a Parliamentary majority.
There is speculation that his long-time personal banker and central bank governor Gideon Gono could get the prime minister’s post.
Gono seemed to have prevailed in his fight with former finance minister Hebert Murerwa who was dropped from government in a Cabinet reshuffle last week.
”To Mugabe this is a game, he loves seeing people speculate only for him to come up with surprises. It is easy to say Mugabe has finally met his Waterloo but I believe he will have his way at the end of the day,” Lovemore Madhuku, chairperson of the National Constitutional Assembly said.
Analysts said it was unlikely that factions led by retired army general Solomon Mujuru and Emmerson Mnangagwa could sit down and forge a united front against Mugabe, because of deep-seated suspicions.
They noted that Mugabe enjoyed support among Zanu-PF’s activists and could sponsor a rebellion if his lieutenants tried to force him out.
”So you can already see that it is actually more difficult for the motion to fail to make it,” Masunungure said.
”Zanu-PF is a more complex political animal and a quarrel of this nature does not mean Mugabe has lost the plot. In fact if there is a real challenge it would be in Parliament where he does not have direct control of legislators, but then they can always be whipped into line as has happened in the past,” he said. – ZimOnline