South Africa’s trade balance improved in February but remained in deficit, while credit growth surged and petrol prices are to jump, backing the case for the central bank to resume raising interest rates.
South Africa’s yawning current account gap has weighed heavily on the economy and currency over the past year, partly due to huge oil imports, robust consumer spending and a penchant for luxury imports.
The volatile trade account recorded a R2,7-billion deficit in February compared to an R11,9-billion shortfall the previous month, the South African Revenue Service said on Friday.
The smaller-than-expected gap could ease some pressure on the current account, that plunged to a 7,8% deficit in the fourth quarter of 2006, but will continue a reliance on unpredictable portfolio capitals to maintain balance.
”The latest trade figures are more encouraging. However, the underlying deficit remains relatively high and with it the country’s dependence on capital inflows and favourable investor sentiment,” Nedbank said in an analyst note.
A three-year spending boom has helped lift economic growth to around 5% of gross domestic product but has also stretched the capacity of domestic producers to meet local demand.
Statistics South Africa data, also released on Friday, showed consumers were continuing to spend and largely ignoring a cumulative two percentage point increase in rates during the second half of 2006.
Demand for credit surged to 26,12% year-on-year in February from 24,83% after easing for several months following October’s record 27,48% year-on-year growth. The broadly defined M3 measure of money supply grew by 22,9% year-on-year in the same month, compared to a revised 22,05% in January.
Fuel price jumps
The Reserve Bank paused its upward interest rate cycle at its last meeting in February, citing improved inflation prospects, but has warned consumers and banks to curb lending.
Analysts said renewed pressure from a weaker rand currency, rising oil and food prices had raised risks to the inflation outlook, despite a moderation in the targeted CPIX index in February.
”In the short term the Reserve Bank will probably focus on the deterioration in the inflation outlook resulting from the weaker rand and the higher oil price,” Nedbank said.
”The Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee [MPC] may err on the side of conservatism and raise rates at the April meeting.”
The MPC is due to meet on April 11.
Rising international crude oil prices are likely to push inflation higher over the next few months, putting the bank’s previous forecast of a 5,6% year-on-year peak, and its 3 to 6% target range, in jeopardy.
The department of minerals announced that fuel pump prices would jump by about 11% from April 4, following a 5% rise in March.
”The increase is by far the highest ever in percentage terms and nominal terms, and it will definitely have quite an impact on the whole economy,” said Mike Schussler, economist at T-Sec.
But some analysts said the Reserve Bank could hold off on a rate hike and rather up the reserve requirements commercial banks must keep with the central bank after hints from Reserve Bank Governor Tito Mboweni earlier this week.
”He has continued to send out warnings to consumers to stop spending heavily and banks to stop lending heavily … Clearly, some Reserve Bank action will be forthcoming towards the banks in terms of reserve requirements adjustments,” Monica Ambrosi, analysts at ETM, said. – Reuters