Nigerians go to the polls on Saturday to choose state governors and legislators in the first of two elections which, if successful, will give a big boost to democracy across Africa.
The conduct and results of the state level vote will provide an indication of what to expect from presidential polls in Africa’s most populous nation and top oil producer a week later.
Nigeria returned to democracy in 1999 after three decades of almost continuous army rule, and these elections should lead to the first handover from one elected president to another since independence in 1960.
”If Nigeria works well, so might Africa. If the democratic experiment in Nigeria stalls, the rest of Africa suffers and loses hope,” said Robert Rotberg of the United States Council on Foreign Relations in a special report.
President Olusegun Obasanjo must step down after serving for the maximum eight years. He has promised free, fair and transparent polls, but rights groups and foreign observers have voiced reservations.
Dozens of people have been killed in political violence in the months leading up to the polls, many candidates have been disqualified because of controversial indictments for fraud and observers say preparations have been poor.
European Union observers on Friday called on the government to urgently correct a shortfall in accreditation cards for civil society groups, which threatens to prevent effective monitoring.
Big budgets
Nigerian governors control big budgets and have enormous powers in their states, making the gubernatorial polls as important to many Nigerians as the April 21 presidential vote.
In eight years of democracy, more than 15 000 people have been killed in ethnic, religious and communal fighting — often stoked by politicians carving out territory for themselves. This election presents a unique opportunity for a new elite to assume power, wealth and influence in their regions.
Parties have traded accusations of plans to rig or disrupt the polls, and rights groups have accused the Obasanjo government of meddling in the electoral process to favour the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP).
The opposition Action Congress has said thousands of supporters and several candidates have been detained.
Vote-rigging has been a feature of Nigerian elections, through ghost voters, ballot stuffing, counterfeiting, and bribery of electoral officials to falsify results.
The PDP now controls 28 of the 36 states, with the rest split between a handful of opposition parties. With unrivalled funds and powers of incumbency, analysts say the PDP should coast to victory.
But widespread corruption, failure to deliver basic services and deteriorating security have boosted the chances of the opposition in many states.
Obasanjo has advised Nigerians to limit travel during election days and stay at home at night to curb violence and fraud. The government ordered Nigeria’s land borders to be closed from 6am to 6pm (5am GMT to 5pm GMT) on Saturday.
But the security situation in half a dozen states is extremely volatile, and many voters are scared to venture out.
”I want to vote but there has to be tight security,” said Faith Chime, a student in the southern oil producing state of Rivers where six were killed in gang fighting this week. ”If there is no security anything can happen.” – Reuters