On Sunday France delivered confirmation, for most political pundits, of a popular shift to the right. Nicolas Sarkozy, the conservative candidate, emerged comfortably ahead of the Socialist Ségolène Royal, and the total vote of the right in the first round of the presidential election outweighed that of the left.
The Marxist left, commentators argue, has lost its supremacy in French political culture. French society has finally fallen in love with capitalism and craves an injection of reforms (neoliberal reforms, naturally). It may have taken them 28 more years than the British, but in 2007 the French have seen the light. They are ready to turn their back on statist policies and embrace free-market solutions.
But the truth is more complicated, just as the depiction of Sarkozy’s march to the Elysée as a Thatcher moment is simplistic. After five years of neoliberal reforms carried out by a right-wing government, France is, in fact, very much in line with Britain when it comes to flexible hours and low-paid jobs. Between 1997 and 2002, Lionel Jospin’s left-wing government privatised more than all the previous conservative governments. Only the most fervent of free-market propagandists could seriously believe that France is a socialist state.
The policies of the right were repudiated by French voters in spectacular fashion in the 2004 regional and European elections. The massive vote against the European constitutional treaty in May 2005 sent the message that the neoliberal drift of the European Union was perceived as a direct threat to the French social state. Two major opinion polls in recent months have shown that, on the whole, the public remains culturally liberal (on issues such as sexuality, drugs and gender).
The contrast with the repressive and reactionary stance of Sarkozy could hardly be more striking. These polls underlined the deep attachment of the French to the values of solidarity and community. Themes that have traditionally been associated with the left — equality, social justice, free secular education, free health services, public services owned and run by the state — still enjoy majority support. The French are hostile to policies proposing the reduction of unemployment benefits or cuts in the number of public- sector workers. Social movements that have fought the neoliberal policies of the past five years are backed by most. If it is true that a majority of the French accept a market economy and free enterprise, then they are more adamant still that the state must play a crucial role as regulator.
Sarkozy has promised to make the exercise of the right to strike as difficult as it is in Britain. He has also advocated the dismantling of more than a century of social and labour laws contained in the Code du Travail. In doing so, Sarkozy is going against French aspirations. What is more, his staunch Atlanticism and his Huntingtonian belief in a ”clash of civilisations” put him at odds with a majority of his compatriots. How then can the electoral success of Sarkozy be explained?
The answer lies in the tragic errors of the left. The far left, a force to be reckoned with in France, was unable to unite and present a single candidate. No fewer than three Trotskyist candidates, a Communist and the altermondialiste Jose Bove were competing for the votes of the same constituency. Their disunity rendered their campaign inaudible.
Royal, meanwhile, conducted a lacklustre and centrist campaign that alienated much of her electorate. Instead of coming out in defence of the social state and social justice, she emulated Blairite tactics in an attempt to triangulate Sarkozy’s politics. On law and order (the monitoring of young offenders by the military), nationalism and patriotism (the exaltation of the flag and national anthem), the economy (the dismantling of the 35-hour working week), education (the suggestion that teachers were lazy), she tried — unsuccessfully — to occupy the natural territory of the right. Politically and electorally, the strategy backfired.
Royal’s approach demoralised and angered traditional left-wing voters (many of whom none the less felt compelled to vote for her). It also disoriented working-class voters, who were unable to see any difference between the left and the right. In the absence of a coherent left-wing voice, some ended up backing the ”patriotic” voices of Sarkozy and Jean-Marie Le Pen. The more moderate and middle-class elements in the socialist electorate lost patience with a candidate who seemed unable to defeat Sarkozy. By backing the centrist Francois Bayrou, they voted tactically, since opinion polls suggested that Bayrou could win a contest against Sarkozy.
Royal has squandered a golden opportunity of defeating Sarkozy, whose brutal political style and neoliberal agenda engender such widespread fear. But that opportunity is not altogether gone, for she has not lost her major asset: Sarkozy himself. Surfing on a Tout Sauf Sarkozy coalition (”Anybody But Sarkozy”), Royal might just make it. — Â