Boks expected to outmuscle Aussies

Australia have not won in South Africa since the turn of the millennium and going into Saturday’s Tri-Nations rugby opener at Newlands in Cape Town it doesn’t seem as if the trend will change.

Former Springbok coach and player Carel Du Plessis believes the Boks are mentally and physically too strong to succumb to the Wallabies.

Australia’s problems start in the front row, where critics believe they cannot compete with the Boks, simply because they are not good scrummagers.

In the line-outs, Australia should be competitive.

Their locks have strong potential and, in South Africa-born Dan Vickerman, they have a disruptive force who also happens to understand Afrikaans. That said, no Australian line-out can match Bakkies Botha and the mercurial Victor Matfield, arguably the best lock combination in the world.

Matfield is untouchable on his own ball in the line-outs and the tight play of the Matfield-Botha combination is as good as any in the world, if not better.

The one area where the Australians could surprise the Boks is in the battle for the loose ball. The Bok trio of Juan Smith, Schalk Burger and Pierre Spies are explosive on offence and ferocious in defence, but the Australians have the edge in one important area — they have better fetchers.

In George Smith and Phil Waugh, they have two mobile flankers who compete well for the ball on the ground. The Bok support play will, therefore, have to be above average as any player isolated in the tackle will more than likely concede a turnover, providing the dangerous Australian backline an opportunity to run at them.

Du Plessis agrees and cautions the Boks not to ”overload the point of breakdown in a bid to try and secure their own possession, resulting in fewer players to defend against possible turnovers”.

The Australian backline will be marshalled by seasoned campaigners George Gregan and Stephen Larkham, who have 230 caps between them.

Their combination at halfback has left many teams in awe, while Larkham is arguably the best distributor of the ball in world rugby. Du Plessis also remarked the two are at the back end of their careers and if the Boks should apply enough pressure, they might just wilt.

Du Plessis feels Bok flyhalf Butch James needs to grab this opportunity and stamp his authority on the game.

”Butch will have to be a disciplined organiser and marshal his backline in defence and attack. A calm head will keep him out of trouble and that is the only way he will be able to guide Ruan Pienaar in his first start in the green and gold.”

Aussies likely to benefit from the creative talents of Gregan and Larkham are the Western Force’s Matt Giteau and his centre partner, Stirling Mortlock, another of the Brumbies stalwarts.

The Australian centre combination is up against what is seen as South Africa’s best pairing in Jean de Villiers and Jaque Fourie. They are rock-solid tacklers and have enough firepower to crack any defence in the world.

In Drew Mitchell, Lote Tuqiri and Mark Gerrard, Australia have enough quality to take advantage of any opportunity created by the inside backs. The South African back three are also potent, but old hands Montgomery and Willemse are there to calm things down and allow the opportunistic JP Pietersen to dazzle the crowd.

Du Plessis added he would like to see Percy Montgomery join the backline more. His pace on attack could unlock the stubborn Australian defence.

”Even though the Australians are smart enough to disrupt the South Africans in the set pieces, I believe they lack physicality and will have no answer to the more streetwise Boks, who are better organised than in years gone by. The most crucial aspect of the game will be how the home side utilise quality ball,” he concluded. ‒ Sapa

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Referee: Wayne Barnes (England)