/ 28 June 2007

Scepticism over Blair’s new appointment

Tony Blair is to make his first working visit to Ramallah in the West Bank next month as envoy of the quartet of Middle East peacemakers, it emerged on Wednesday, after his job was confirmed amid scepticism about any chance of his success.

His role of quartet representative was announced jointly in New York by the United States, European Union, United Nations and Russia. Blair will work on building government institutions and the rule of law, mobilising international help and promoting the economy.

”He will spend significant time in the region working with the parties and others to help create viable and lasting government institutions representing all Palestinians, a robust economy and a climate of law and order for the Palestinian people,” the quartet said in a statement.

They stopped short of giving Blair an explicit role as mediator between the Israelis and Palestinians in the peace process, but did give a broad remit to ”liaise with other countries as appropriate in support of the agreed quartet objectives”.

Sources close to Blair said he expected his role to be bigger than that assigned to his predecessor, James Wolfensohn, a former World Bank president who resigned in frustration in April 2006 after focusing just on the economy, on preparation for Israeli withdrawal from Gaza.

Blair sees his role as preparing ground for eventual talks on a final, comprehensive settlement by Palestinians and Israelis, with his immediate task to help to halt the violence between Fatah and Hamas and heal the divide.

His appointment left some egos battered and generated controversy. Russia demanded last-minute changes to the terms of reference, clarifying his precise status. Blair also spoke to Vladimir Putin, Russia’s President.

Gordon Brown was described as angry at being presented with a fait accompli, making it difficult for him to formulate his own Middle East policy.

”This keeps Blair interminably in the limelight,” said a top diplomat, noting the former PM will report to the UN General Assembly in September, just as Brown makes his maiden appearance.

Javier Solana, EU foreign policy chief, with a long track-record in the region, is also unhappy, Brussels sources say. The Foreign Office, where top officials knew nothing until last Thursday, is said to be in an ”institutional sulk”.

Blair is understood to have spoken to Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian President, and his Prime Minister, Salam Fayyad, who are happy with the appointment. He also spoke to Israel’s Prime Minister, Ehud Olmert. Jonathan Powell, Downing Street’s former chief of staff, is to work with Blair. Other officials may follow suit, making a team of a dozen experts to be based in East Jerusalem.

Blair is not being asked to run talks between the Palestinians and Israel, but he will seek Israel’s cooperation in areas such as free movement and access. It was failure to make progress on these which led to Wolfensohn’s resignation.

”The quartet recognises that you can’t make significant progress on Palestinian institutions and capabilities without getting the Israelis to help,” said a well-placed official.

”If they want a partner for peace they have to enable improvements. Obviously we hope there will be a political process but this is an essential component. You won’t get the US and Israel moving until they feel this issue is being tackled.”

The White House on Wednesday night appeared to play down expectations over what he might achieve, saying progress depended on Palestinians first renouncing terrorism.

”Tony Blair is going to have the opportunity to work with and in support of those who support democracy and peace in the region, and that’s what he does. He’s not Superman, he doesn’t have a cape,” said Tony Snow, George Bush’s spokesperson.

”He’s not designed to be doing that. What he is designed to do is to work as an aggressive facilitator between the quartet and interested parties to try to look for ways to make progress.”

Blair will coordinate donors and agencies such as the UN Relief and Works Agency, a task currently carried out through an ad-hoc liaison committee. Another hot issue is reform of the Palestinian police.

It is already clear he will face one grave problem, as Israel makes clear that it will not contemplate any dealings with Hamas, and intends to back Abbas to the hilt. Critics say talk of Palestinian governance and capacity-building is meaningless if it ignores 1,4-million people in Gaza and institutionalises a West Bank/Gaza schism, critics say.

”No one doubts Blair’s status and commitment,” said a figure closely involved in the quartet deliberations. ”He came fresh to Northern Ireland, but he’s not coming fresh to this. He has an extraordinary amount of baggage. And he’s coming in at the worst possible moment.”

In public, Palestinian leaders welcomed Blair’s appointment. In private, there was scepticism.

”Is he going to be listened to? Are his comments going to be respected? Can he really intervene?” asked Hanan Ashrawi, a Palestinian MP and former peace negotiator. She said the Palestinians did not need help building up their institutions. ”We need third party involvement to achieve peace, to curb Israeli measures, to end the occupation and to build a state.”

Israelis also noted their government was reluctant to have an international mediator trying to strike a peace deal.

”It doesn’t matter who the middle man is, or if there is a middle man at all. If the sides are interested, it can happen, if they are not, it doesn’t matter who you bring,” said Cameron Brown, deputy director of the Interdisciplinary Centre in Herzliya. — Guardian Unlimited Â