Travelling in private jets, helicopters and bulletproof limousines, Chaudhry Pervez Elahi, a staunch supporter of President Pervez Musharraf, is hard on the campaign trail for Monday’s Pakistani general election.
But at his lavishly funded, tightly guarded rallies there is a striking absence: any mention of Musharraf.
An opinion poll released this week suggests why. Musharraf’s support has collapsed according to the survey by the International Republic Institute. Just 15% of Pakistanis support their president, an all-time low, and some 75% want him to resign immediately. An earlier, smaller poll by Gallup International found 81% wanted him to quit.
Technically the election is not about Musharraf, who was re-elected for five years in a legally dubious procedure in November. But as Pakistan limps from crisis to crisis — suicide bombings, soaring food prices and public anger in the wake of Benazir Bhutto’s assassination — the vote has become central to the retired general’s future and, many believe, the stability of the nuclear-armed country.
The task of shoring up Musharraf’s political base falls to the Pakistan Muslim League-Q, the party he cobbled together six years ago to legitimise his ”managed” democracy. But even for loyal lieutenants such as Elahi, the ”M-word” is quietly avoided.
Last week the Punjabi politician, whose ambition is to be Pakistan’s next prime minister, boarded a chartered Russian helicopter to Narowal, a small farming town near the border with India. Security was tight.
Standing on a podium, Elahi addressed several thousand people from behind a green bulletproof shield. Edgy policemen clustered around his luxury 4×4 vehicle. Flag-waving followers, pushed back by at least 50m, watched him on a pair of giant television screens installed for the event.
In a short speech the former chief minister of Punjab made generous promises and slammed opponents. Vote for the opposition and they will ”suck you dry”, he told the crowd of farmers and traders, who roared approval when he offered to run a major gas pipeline to their town. But there was only one, fleeting reference to Musharraf.
”Legally, we’re not allowed to,” said Elahi afterwards as his helicopter flew back to Lahore. ”Constitutionally the president is above political politics.”
Anyway, he said, Pakistanis were more interested in local than national issues. He pointed out of the window to the tarmac roads and concreteÂÂ-lined canals criss-crossing Punjab’s plains. ”You see, we have built all this,” he said. ”People will remember that.”
Back in Lahore, a bulletproof BMW was waiting to whisk Elahi from the helicopter to his mansion. A high-speed police escort accompanied them.
The amounts that Elahi and his cousin, Chaudhry Shujat Hussain, are spending on their American-style campaign has attracted much comment locally. As well as the helicopter they have hired a seven-seat jet to transport them around the campaign trail.
The family has prospered under Musharraf. Local media reports speak of tens of millions of dollars in investments. Luxury vehicles crowd the driveway of their home. Elahi said the wealth came from the family textile business. As for the helicopter: ”We need it. Time is very short and Punjab is bigger than Great Britain,” he said.
But most Pakistanis are worried about money. Soaring wheat prices and chronic shortages of electricity and gas have frayed voters’ patience this winter — not least in Elahi’s backyard.
The next morning Shehzad Aziz, a 24-year manual labourer, hunched over a flickering gas stove in the cramped house he shares with his parents, siblings, wife and two children, on the edge of Lahore. The price of flour had doubled, he said, electricity was out for 10 hours a day, and the gas was so weak it took an hour to brew a cup of tea. ”The government doesn’t care about the poor,” he said. ”But if the rulers are not good, what can we do?”
Others will also be voting with their stomachs in Monday’s election. Some three-quarters of Pakistanis will vote according to economic issues, the IRI said, potentially bad news for Musharraf’s men. But the PML-Q says it can ride out the storm.
Hussain, the party’s president, predicted they would win 90 of the 192 contested seats — enough, along with allies, to cobble together a government. Newsline, a respected local magazine, estimates it will be lucky to take 40.
The gulf in expectations has fuelled allegations of vote rigging and deepened a mood of uncertainty as the poll nears. In North-West Frontier Province suicide bombers have struck opposition rallies twice in the past week, killing at least 34 people. Most were supporters of the Awami National Party, the biggest Pashtun nationalist party, expected to do well at the expense of the religious alliance.
Lawyer-led protests are revving up again. On Saturday police in Islamabad fired water cannon and teargas to prevent a demonstration reaching the house of the former chief justice, Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, who has been under house arrest since November. ”It’s not just a question of the chief justice, it’s of Musharraf going. Anyone with a sense of self-respect would just go. But this man is shameless, he has to be kicked out,” said Roedad Khan, a retired civil servant.
Musharraf needs the PML-Q to perform well to ensure his grip on power. Otherwise he will be vulnerable to impeachment, a prospect that, since the imposition of emergency rule in November, he appears unwilling to consider.
Newspapers are predicting post-poll anarchy, particularly if rigging fears materialise ”It is not looking good,” said an editorial in the Daily Times.
But the wild card is the army chief, General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani. In response to public disaffection he has distanced the military from politics, ordering officers to avoid contact with politicians. But he is also considered a close ally of Musharraf. If the elections don’t go smoothly the army could be called out and his loyalties tested. But nobody knows which way he will turn. — Â