Will he stay?

There has been intense speculation not just in financial markets, but also at the headquarters of the Treasury over Finance Minister Trevor Manuel’s political future, and the possibility that new political leadership would try to push “team finance” in a different policy direction.

Some officials initially said they would quit if Manuel were replaced by a more populist minister, but most are nervously awaiting the outcome of the political wrangling ahead of the 2009 elections.

“If it’s a good minister, I’ll stay; if it’s a bad minister, it will take him three years to figure out what we do anyway, so there’s some time,” said one bureaucrat.

Many of the rumours about a possible replacement for Manuel, who has a very tense relationship with the hard left leadership around Jacob Zuma, seem to be the product of wishful thinking.

Some officials hope that Manuel will remain in Cabinet in a new role, and that Pravin Gordhan, the highly regarded commissioner of the South African Revenue Service, will take over as finance minister. Gordhan is regarded as more palatable to the new African National Congress leadership than Manuel, and as a reassuringly skilled technocrat. Gordhan himself, however, pooh-poohs such speculation.

Treasury Director General Lesetja Kganyago insists that his team will retain commitment, despite its nervousness about political change. “They are seriously committed to public service. They are highly skilled and could command very high salaries elsewhere, yet they are here. Not just because of allegiance to the political principal, but because they know that what they do makes a difference in the lives of people.”

Manuel would, as usual, not be drawn on his future, saying that President Thabo Mbeki or the ANC could decide to dispense with him at any time, but added an elegiac note that sounded to many of the people present like a farewell: “I have had an immensely wonderful set of opportunities that history has afforded me, and I reflect on that.”