China’s Year of the Earth Rat has produced more than its fair share of shocks for the modern-day mandarins of Beijing. The earthquake that ripped a hole in the heart of the country on Monday is but the latest rollercoaster crisis to rock the communist leadership’s vision of a smoothly advancing 21st-century superpower. On this occasion, reports from the disaster zone suggest they have responded well so far.
This was always going to be a big year for China, with the Olympics taking pride of place. Its leaders insist sport and politics do not mix. But the August games have been shamelessly commandeered as a matchless platform on which to celebrate a national coming of age — or, as former Hong Kong governor Chris Patten puts it, ”the country’s re-emergence as a great global power”.
Critics of China’s domestic and foreign policies have reacted with similar singlemindedness, most recently turning the Olympic torch relay into a running commentary on Beijing’s behaviour in Tibet. The controversy that followed the spring crackdown in Lhasa, in particular the Chinese state media’s ugly abuse of the Dalai Lama, alienated friends and foes alike.
The mistake has since been recognised and corrected. Like a previous spasm of nationalist ire aimed at perfidious Japan, officially rehabilitated this month as a valued Asian partner, the Tibet rhetoric tap has been quietly turned off. Beijing has agreed to resume talks, albeit limited, with representatives of Tibet’s exiled spiritual leader. In similar vein, China is organising a conference on Darfur in June, apparently intended to defuse Western criticism of its collaboration with Sudan’s government.
The change of tack fits a pattern of growing awareness among ruling cadres of the importance of winning the battle of popular perceptions. There was a time, not long ago, when the Communist Party gave not a fig for the world’s opinions or those of China’s peasant masses — and was not afraid to say so. That changed when the modernising technocrat, President Hu Jintao, replaced the old school apparatchik, Jiang Zemin. Though still a conservative figure in many ways, Hu’s swift reaction to and personal involvement in the relief effort accurately reflects his ”New China” brand of user-friendly politics. So, too, does the decision to send Premier Wen Jiabao to Sichuan while simultaneously mobilising the army.
George Bush’s Hurricane Katrina debacle, Vladimir Putin’s Kursk submarine disgrace and the Burmese junta’s ongoing, reckless incompetence have provided helpful lessons on how not to do disasters. China’s leaders will doubtless have noticed the extent to which, as in Bush’s case, fumbling at a time of national crisis can destroy political reputation and legitimacy.
Beijing’s unelected and ever more frequently criticised power elite is vulnerable on this score. It needs all the prestige and authority it can muster if it is to ride this latest tiger and the possible aftershocks, political and social.
”The government is responding very quickly despite the difficult wet conditions,” a Chinese official said this week. ”The whole country is pulling together. Rescue teams are pouring in from all over the country. People are queuing to give blood. This is a time of solidarity.”
But the official admitted awkward questions were sure to follow. One focus of attention will be why so many public buildings, especially schools packed with pupils, collapsed so utterly — and whether, as in recent earthquake disasters in Iran and Turkey, inadequate or corrupt building practices were partly responsible. Medical teams were also very aware of the post-quake dangers posed by disease and exposure for thousands of homeless people, the official said.
International rows apart, the Year of the Earth Rat has already seen rising strains in China over inflated food and energy prices, corrupt land grabs, ethnic differences and falling export demand. The quake and its implications for reconstruction, compensation and social cohesion is the latest blow.
”They [the government] have started well but it could get very difficult for them,” an Asian diplomat said. ”They are an authoritarian government, they have not been elected by the people. They will be judged by how they handle the situation. It will be a big test.” — Â