History backs the experts who say the Russians will continue their domination of South Africa’s premier ultra-marathon, the Comrades, which will be run from Durban to Pietermaritzburg on Sunday.
The last time South Africans won the ”up” run was in 1992, when Jetman Msutu and Frances van Blerk won the male and female races respectively. Msutu finished second but was declared the winner after another South African, Charl Mattheus, was disqualified for using a banned substance.
Bruce Fordyce, nine-time Comrades winner, backs Leonid Shvetsov to come first on Sunday. Shvetsov last year broke Fordyce’s down record, which had stood for 21 years.
”I just don’t see any of our local runners stopping Shvetsov,” he said. ”The Russian runners are more committed than our runners, which is why they always come out tops. They train very hard and focus their training on that special event.”
Local supporters shouldn’t give up hope, though. ”Brian Zondi, who finished second last year, could strongly challenge Shvetsov. Zondi finished a few minutes behind Shvetsov,” said Fordyce.
The direction of the race changes every year between the up run and the down run, which starts from Pietermaritzburg. For some years Russians have got the better of South African runners in up runs.
Nick Bester, a 1991 Comrades winner and now general manager of the Nedbank running club, shares Fordyce’s sentiments. ”The Russians are fine athletes, like the Kenyans. They train hard and professionally and they live for the sport,” he said. ”Our local guys can finish in the top five but not go all the way to win it.”
Local runners have won the marathon only five times in the past 15 races: Shaun Meiklejohn in 1995, Charl Mattheus in 1997, Andrew Kelehe in 2001, Fusi Nhlapo in 2003 and Sipho Ngomane in 2005.
Some attribute the South Africans’ relative lethargy to a lack of financial incentives to make them go for broke. ”Fak’ imali uzobona [Give them money and you’ll see],” Zithulele Sinqe, Nedbank club development manager, said of the South African runners. ”The problem with our runners is that they are runners and full-time employees at the same time. These athletes have to deliver at work as well, unlike the Russians who are full-time runners,” he said.
The first man and woman to cross the finish line will each pocket R220 000, with R110 000 for second place and R82 500 for third.
Sinqe said: ”Our athletes start taking running seriously at a later stage [of their careers] and don’t put much effort into it.”
Russell Crawford, manager of the Mr Price team, is a lone voice in the belief that South Africans stand a realistic chance. But he thinks the Russians have benefited from better training, which enables them to negotiate hills better. This, he said, is a factor that makes them dominate up runs.
”Generally the Russians run better than us when it is the up run. They are better hill runners than our local runners because of their wellÂorganised training,” he said.
”[That’s] not to say that we don’t have good hill runners: we have the likes of Mcendisi Mkhize of Mr Price, who came third last year in the down run. He is good at both and we are banking on him to represent us well. In fact we have quite a number of runners who will give the Russians a run for their money.”
Mkhize, Nhlapo and Leboka Noto are serious contenders. Crawford singled out Mkhize and Zondi as having the best chances to upset the Russian dominance.
”They are both good athletes but Mkhize stands a better chance than Zondi because he is also good on both the up and down runs. History might be made for the first time in 16 years,” said Crawford.