/ 7 July 2008

Another petrol price increase looms

An increase in the petrol price of between 20 cents and 40 cents is possible in August, said T-Sec economist Mike Schussler on Monday.

”The oil market is very volatile at the moment,” said Schussler. ”It’s not a simple situation.”

For the current month there was a 54-cent under-recovery overall for petrol and a 60-cent under-recovery for diesel.

An increase of between 20 and 40 cents is then likely for next month, said Schussler.

He said the most worrying time for South African fuel prices will be in the fourth quarter of the year, when the northern hemisphere will be experiencing winter.

As the northern hemisphere buys 80% of the energy worldwide, plenty of oil will then be needed for heating.

He said South Africans may be paying more than R12 for diesel and more than R11 or even R12 for petrol by that time.

”The chances are that we are going to have a 50c to R1 increase for petrol and diesel by the end of the year,” he said. ”It will be the most trying time for the economy.”

Schussler said there should be some relief next year when oil from new oil fields begins reaching the market.

He said the chances for an economic recession in South Africa are increasing.

”We already seeing a slowdown in economic growth. It’s very difficult to say exactly … where the South African economy is going to go.” — Sapa