/ 28 September 2008

Counting the cost of inclusivity

ANC president Jacob Zuma lived up to his promise of a more inclusive ANC last weekend, allowing majority opinion on President Thabo Mbeki’s future to prevail in the party’s national executive committee (NEC) — against his better judgement.

Zuma had already proclaimed that the ANC should focus its energies on elections rather than ”beat the dead snake” of the Mbeki administration. It was the numerous casualties of Mbeki’s 10-year tenure who exacted revenge and persuaded the NEC to remove him, including businessmen Tokyo Sexwale and Cyril Ramaphosa, treasurer Mathews Phosa and SACP general secretary Blade Nzimande. Other NEC hardliners include Tony Yengeni, Siphiwe Nyanda and ANC Youth League president Julius Malema.

At a meeting of the NEC’s ”inner leadership core”, the national working committee, last Monday, Zuma bowed to the majority view that unless Mbeki was removed as an alternative power centre, the ANC would remain divided.

His view that Mbeki should stay until his term ends was backed by his top lieutenants, deputy president Kgalema Motlanthe and secretary general Gwede Mantashe.

At the NEC meeting that followed, the three leaders ”went over the NWC’s head” by arguing the same line, sources said. As a compromise they proposed early elections, which would have seen Mbeki leave office in four months instead of eight.

But the majority view was that the Christmas break would disrupt election preparations.

”If it hadn’t been for Christmas, Mbeki would probably still be in office,” an NEC member said.

Zuma reasserted some authority, however, by choosing Motlanthe as Mbeki’s replacement, rather than National Assembly Speaker Baleka Mbete. Mbete had a vocal chorus of NEC supporters and widespread media leaks suggested she was the leading candidate. Some Zuma backers view Motlanthe with suspicion as a possible rival for the presidency in the longer term. According to MPs other senior officials also lent support, with deputy secretary general Thandi Modise commending Motlanthe to the ANC’s parliamentary caucus as a man capable of keeping his temper and choosing his words carefully.

The job went to Motlanthe on the strength of his perceived ability to manage political tensions, as he did in Polokwane. It was also felt that re-deploying Mbete could destabilise Parliament. But some of Zuma’s core supporters still fear the public may question why the ANC would want to replace Motlanthe after next year’s election if he performs well in the next the six months.