Nigeria’s Supreme Court is expected to decide on Thursday whether to rule invalid the election of President Umaru Yar’Adua, in a case which has stalled decision-making in Africa’s most populous state.
A Cabinet reshuffle announced months ago has not materialised, nor has the nomination of a minister to head the new department tasked with pacifying the volatile Niger Delta.
”There’s a school of thought now that says the Cabinet reshuffle won’t come before the Supreme court decision,” one MP said.
In February, an electoral tribunal upheld the validity of the 2007 presidential poll, widely criticised as fraudulent, and threw out two lawsuits aiming to have the election results voided.
The opposition candidates who brought the lawsuits — former vice-president Atiku Abubakar and ex-head of state Mohammadu Buhari– have petitioned the Supreme Court to overturn the February ruling.
The wheels of justice have been slow to turn in Nigeria, and the last hearing in the case was in late April 2008.
Nigerians may have to wait longer, as the court has given no indication whether it will pronounce a judgement on Thursday or merely set a date for a judgement.
”Your guess is as good as mine. They could make a final ruling. They could change their minds over last time or they could just announce a new date,” an Abuja-based politician said.
Another factor adding to the state of uncertainty is Yar’Adua’s health. In the absence of official statements on the issue, rumours that the president is suffering an illness are rife.
Nigeria’s economy is relatively well cushioned from the turmoil on global markets, but, after months of rising oil prices, the recent downturn is another factor of uncertainty.
Oil Minister Odein Ajumogobia said on Wednesday he would set the oil price benchmark in its 2009 budget at $45, rather than the $62 the government was reportedly considering a few weeks ago.
Moreover, 18 months after his election, Yar’Adua’s administration appears to have made little progress on the areas the president set as his priorities.
Despite the announcement just after he came to power that he would declare a state of emergency in the power sector, Nigeria and its 140-million inhabitants are still limping along on one-15th of the power South Africa produces for a population only one-third of the size.
Business’s reliance on generators, with the increased costs entailed, makes a mockery of the idea of Nigeria’s goal of ranking among the world’s top 20 economies by 2020.
The oil that both made Nigeria’s fortune and destroyed the other sectors of its economy is not faring as well as previously.
Attacks on oil companies and government plants in the oil-rich Delta have forced a cut in production to somewhere between 1,8-million and two million barrels per day, down from 2,6-million barrels per day two years ago, meaning that Angola is now vying with Nigeria to be the continent’s biggest oil producer.
The government’s reply is to say the president is ”working at his own pace”. — Sapa-AFP