President Abdullahi Yusuf of Somalia has admitted that his government is on the verge of collapse and that Islamist groups now control most of the country.
In a speech to Somali MPs gathered in the Kenyan capital Nairobi at the weekend, Yusuf said that the government only had a presence in the capital Mogadishu and in Baidoa, ”and people are being killed there every day. Islamists have taken over everywhere else.”
His frank admission confirms what is known but seldom publicly acknowledged by those with a stake in Somalia’s future, from Ethiopia, whose continued occupation unites the different Islamist groups against a common enemy, to the United Nations and Western countries, which have backed the warlord-heavy government for years.
The latest bout of infighting — Yusuf and his Prime Minister, Nur Hassan Hussein, have failed to agree a new Cabinet despite a deadline from regional leaders — came as Islamist militias made rapid gains towards Mogadishu. Al-Shabaab, the most extreme and effective of the Islamist insurgent groups, took control of Elasha, 14km from the capital, on Saturday. Al-Shabaab fighters had already captured the strategic ports towns of Merka and Barawe without firing a shot.
Though they already control many of Mogadishu’s battered suburbs, a heavy Ethiopian presence is likely to stop al-Shabaab taking over the entire city.
But if the government does collapse, the mission of the 3 000 African Union peacekeepers and Ethiopian troops will be redundant with no state institutions to protect. It was a point stressed by Yusuf, who urged MPs to return to Baidoa, the provisional capital, and form a new government as soon as possible, warning that it would otherwise be ”every man for himself” .
”The Islamists kill city cleaners, they will not spare legislators,” he said.
While atrocities by all sides have claimed thousands of lives this year alone, al-Shabaab fighters have increasingly been targeting civilians. Accused by the US of links to al-Qaeda, they have adopted similar tactics. Last month five synchronised suicide bombings in autonomous Somaliland and Puntland claimed 25 lives.
Al-Shabaab have also employed brutal tactics to enforce their version of sharia law in some areas under their control. In Kismayo, a young woman was stoned to death for alleged adultery last month, while 32 people taking part in traditional dancing in Balad were flogged on Saturday.
Such punishments are unpopular among ordinary among Somalis who have traditionally practised a moderate form of Islam. But, as happened two years ago when the Islamic Courts Union wrested control of Mogadishu from warlord rule, they have usually welcomed the restoration of security — a precious commodity in a country that has known only anarchy for 17 years.
The difference between 2006 and today is that the Islamist struggle has many different strands, which makes the outcome more dangerous, according to Bruno Schiemsky, a former chairperson of the UN monitoring group investigating arms embargo violations in Somalia.
Apart from al-Shabaab, the Jabhad al-Islamiya movement, believed to be associated with the cleric Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys, and the Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia, led by Sheik Sharif Ahmed, also control territory. The two groups’ ideology is more nationalist than al-Shabaab, said Schiemsky.
For now the three groups are united against the common enemy of Ethiopia, but when Ethiopia withdraws there will be complete fragmentation and chaos. The nightmare in Somalia is still to come.”
A diplomat in Nairobi said that Western governments, including his own, had been guilty of viewing Somalia as ”too difficult too solve and not important enough to matter”. But the failure of Yusuf’s government meant fresh thinking was required on what type of authority in Somalia was acceptable to the international community.
”I don’t believe that Somalia will become a Taliban-style state. We need to accept a few years of harsh Islamic rule and work with the authority that way.” – guardian.co.uk