What does 2009 hold for the world of technology? First: the small print. If you want to know the future, buy a crystal ball. Besides, if columnists knew what was going to happen then they wouldn’t be wasting valuable time writing columns, would they?
The only thing to be done, therefore, is to identify long-term trends and see what they might imply for the short-term future. In that context, the biggest trend around is the remarkable transition from a world in which the PC was the computer to one in which the internet is the computer. People once fantasised about which device everything would “converge” on to: TV, PC or cellphone. What none of these fantasists noticed is that it had already happened — and that the net was where everything had landed.
The “converged” future turned out to be one in which any device worth its salt had to be able to offer a real-time window on to the network.
We’ve begun to see the implications of that. One sign was the emergence of so-called netbooks — simple, ultra-portable handheld computers with smallish displays, no moving parts and running a lightweight version of Linux. They came with onboard wi-fi, simple webcams and Skype built in and were essentially portable life-support systems for a browser and a few selected web applications such as Gmail or Hotmail. And they are the fastest-growing market segment in the industry: about 10% of all portable computer sales last year were netbooks.
Why? Simply because many people found that all they needed was a cheap, highly portable, robust device that gave them a window on to the net. And the first manufacturers to notice this were not major laptop vendors such as HP and Lenovo, but an unknown Taiwanese outfit called Asus. Now even Hewlett-Packard offers a netbook or two.
The other sign that the network is now the computer is the raging success of Apple’s iPhone, which is basically a powerful hand-held Unix computer that also does voice calls. People with iPhones report using their “proper” computers less, and it’s obvious why. For many purposes (email, browsing, using calendars or maps) the iPhone screen and interface are good enough.
The most puzzling thing about cellphones last year was why no company seemed able to stop Apple dominating the smartphone market. But the paralysis cannot last, so I expect the launch of a slick handset that runs Google’s excellent Android software like a native. And such a device will be, like the iPhone, essentially a powerful computer that also does voice calls.
This will radically change the market for software. For the next few years the action will be in cellphone “apps” — ie small programs that run on the iPhone and Android devices. These cost from zero to $5 and will be downloaded in their millions. They’re cute, clever, specialised and lightweight, but they do exactly what you want. Which means the market for big, expensive operating systems and software packages is set to decline. This is depressing news for those companies that have grown fat on the proceeds of bloated PC software suites. And as “bloatware” recedes and solid-state (“flash”) drives reach capacities of 64GB at affordable prices, traditional hard-drive manufacturers will need to find new markets (back-up systems for the home, perhaps?).
On the web, we will see whether Twitter, geeks’ beloved microblogging service, can find a viable business model.
In the corporate world, 2009 is likely to be dominated by: speculation about Apple’s ability to survive Steve Jobs’s departure (yawn); Yahoo!’s death throes; Microsoft’s struggle to erase the bad karma of Vista with shiny new Windows 7, plus its doomed attempts to seize the initiative in web services, search and online advertising; and Wall Street’s disillusionment with Google, as the search giant struggles with the impact of recession on advertising. Hard times will mean fewer impulse buys of electronic toys, that upgrades will be postponed, and that companies will finally begin to examine the energy costs of their PC-based networks.
Other than that, I haven’t a clue what will happen. Happy new year! – guardian.co.uk