The 2010 Flux Trends (MacMillan) review neatly avoids becoming irrelevant, thanks to its focus on review rather than trend-spotting. The predominant feature is a look back at political, business or social trends. The brief ”about” note at the beginning of the book tells us that in our world of information overload, it provides an opportunity to ”hit the pause button” and reflect ”on the state we are in”.
Editor Dion Chang opens this year’s compilation with newspaper editor Mondli Makhanya’s reflection on ”The Pulse of the People”, which brings with it more questions than answers. Key to the chapter is the ongoing racial tension that pervades South African society.
The piece is perhaps not so much prescient as it is timeous in the face of increasingly racialised events in the headlines — anything from the Caster Semenya saga to the debacle over Jacob Maroga’s position at Eskom. Makhanya talks about the unrealised vision of a rainbow nation given that economic transformation remains for most a distant dream. He makes mention of the meaningful cultural shifts taking place among the children of the middle classes and the space this affords South Africans to take the national conversation beyond divided party and racial politics.
The sociopolitical view is juxtaposed neatly with the business view, as Dutch-born Rutger-Jan van Spaandonk waxes lyrical on the opportunities Africa affords the international business community. This is not without the cautionary statements on recession and standards of governance. Asking whether Africa is the final business frontier, he points to the growing investment in Africa by China and India.
Leap then to the decline of the newspaper industry mainly because of the internet, but exacerbated by the recession.
Irwin Manoim details the pain that newspapers the world over are feeling as advertising revenue, particularly bread-and-butter advertising such as classifieds, has splintered thanks to free web-based competition.
But, although newspapers are dying, online readerships in the developing world are on the rise. Younger ”news junkies” also feature here. But Manoim says the big question remains: how can news organisations make enough money from these junkies to sustain their operations?
Manoim provides a locally based picture, making the point that newspaper readership is growing here and in the broader developing world because of the success of tabloids such as the Daily Sun. He notes that the profit-geared behemoths that run most local papers have already taken cost-cutting steps that other countries are only just thinking about: sharing printing presses, buildings and distribution systems.
Manoim also covers the future of journalism as a fourth estate. He glibly debunks the idea that bloggers can’t do what old-fashioned reporters can with a budget behind them.
It is his conclusion that is the most interesting: the death of news as we know it is here. But, according to Manoim, history will repeat itself.
”One day a Bill Gates figure arrives and finds the hidden treasure. Then consolidation begins. Brands are swallowed up or stomped on by other brands, cartels form, the rich get richer and the poor fall by the way side … A multitude of blogs will not replace the news establishment. A handful of blogs will become the news establishment. The blogger in his pyjamas will morph into the blogger in his dark suit, employer of scores of minions, his website driven by the need to please the advertisers, beat the competition and titillate ever-larger audiences. The future will have a comforting familiarity.”
The assumption is that all South Africans will one day have access to the internet, following the same patterns as users in developed nations — whether it’s users are hooked on news or social networking.
Enter the social web in South Africa. Mike Stopforth tells us in his chapter that with the unleashing of the Seacom cable on South Africa, internet prices will drop swiftly. The wave of change that Stopforth exhorts business to take advantage of, sadly, still has to take place.
Nevertheless, he points to some major changes that are happening, if at a slower pace than predicted.
They include increasing mobility through technology, whether it is faster, lighter laptops or smarter smart phones, as well as the development of a far savvier consumer, who is increasingly immune to marketing messages.
Chapters such as Gary Bailey’s on the impact of 2010 offer a greater sense of looking ahead rather than simply stating the now. He takes the experience of Germany in hosting the World Cup and translates it into a catalogue of possibilities for South Africa, including how to make some cash for yourself next year.
