For South African producers the strong rand has tempered the benefits of the gold price.
Although the dollar price of gold has increased 46% in the past year, the rand price has increased only 11% in the past 12 months and still remains 11% off its peak of about R330 000 a kilogram in February this year.
The boost to South African exports is limited, but this has been a trend for a long time, as gold is a dying industry in South Africa.
Gold contributes only 1.5% to gross domestic product, having fallen from 2% in 2000. The platinum group of metals now makes up 2.7% of the economy and coal 2.4%.
South Africa reached peak gold production in the 1970s when the country was producing about 1 000 tonnes of gold a year.
Today that figure is just more than 200 tonnes and gold-mining production continues to decline.
South Africa used to be the world’s leading gold producer, but it has fallen to third behind China and Russia. Gold now makes up less than 8% of exports.
A recent report suggested South Africa’s gold reserves are substantially lower than previously calculated and that South Africa will run out of gold sooner than expected.
But Daniel Sacks, who runs the Investec Global Gold Fund, says this is a difficult figure to calculate because it depends on the price of gold.
The higher the price of gold the more viable marginal mines become.
But the costs of mining in South Africa are increasing dramatically and the effect of the Eskom electricity price hike and the introduction of royalties could reduce the viability of many marginal mines, even against the backdrop of a higher gold price.
Despite the perception that gold affects the value of the rand, it in fact has no impact at all.
Sandy McGregor of Allan Gray says the correlation between the gold price and the rand is the result of factors driving the flow of money — it is not a direct relationship.
Investors looking for alternatives to the dollar will move into emerging- market currencies and gold.
This has a positive impact both on the gold price and the rand, which is a proxy for emerging-market currencies.
But the gold price does have an impact on South Africa’s balance of payments because the country imports oil.
South Africa’s gold exports are nearly equal to the value of its oil imports. At current prices its gold exports will earn about $6.5- billion a year and the country will spend about $8-billion on oil.
Given that both are dollar-denominated, as long as the dollar price moves in tandem they will offset each other.
Sacks says apart from the fact that they are both resources, one of the reasons for the correlation between gold and oil prices is that a higher oil price increases the income of the Middle East, which in turn spends its extra money on gold, which drives up prices.
Gold becomes new currency
Gold has always been used as a form of money. As the faith in banks and central bankers has been tested in the past 18 months, gold has returned as the currency of choice, breaking new records and surging 30% in the past year.
Sandy McGregor of Allan Gray says the fact that gold is an asset that carries no liability has made it increasingly attractive in a world where no one trusts anyone to make good on their promises.
Even cash as a safe haven proved to be an empty promise when entire countries such as Iceland went bankrupt.
Overnight a currency can become worthless, decimating life savings, but gold will always have a value and can be traded anywhere in the world.
A strong gold price is an indication that investors remain concerned about the stability of the world’s finances.
Gold is also an excellent hedge against a weaker dollar.
Daniel Sacks, who runs the Investec Global Gold Fund, says that normally gold makes a poor currency as it doesn’t pay any interest.
If people are receiving positive yields from investing in dollars, gold tends to be the poorer cousin.
But with interest rates now negative, gold becomes more attractive, especially as a hedge against inflation.
As governments print money to stimulate economies, they devalue their currencies.
Gold, on the other hand, faces supply constraints with the growth in gold production in decline.
Central banks have also become net buyers of gold for the first time in decades.
This year India bought 200 tonnes of gold from the International Monetary Fund (a year’s worth of South Africa’s gold production) and China has increased its gold reserves by 400 tonnes.
Sacks says this is not necessarily a change in policy for developed economies, which are still decreasing their gold reserves, but rather a strategy by emerging economies to build up gold reserves.
But it is not only central banks that are buying — investors have been stocking up too.
Globally, exchange traded funds (ETFs), which trade in physical gold, are now worth about $45-billion, of which about 75% is held by retail investors.
But last year in October, when banks collapsed, even ETFs were not considered safe, as they still required an intermediary to hold the gold.
The sale of gold coins went through the roof, with Kruger rands trading at a premium to the gold price, but that premium has now disappeared.
Gold is clearly a safe haven in a world of chaos, but should you still be buying bullion?
It all depends on your view of where the dollar and global economy is headed. McGregor says that the prognosis for the dollar is not good right now.
The United States Federal Reserve will not hike rates until employment improves.
But unemployment is a lagging indicator and will start falling only once an economic recovery is well under way — companies hire people only when they are making enough money to do so.
This means that negative interest rates will remain for some time to come, so the dollar will continue to weaken.
If people continue to look for diversification away from the dollar, there will still be demand for gold.
Sacks says gold should be viewed as a diversification play rather than a growth asset, although the price could rise further if macroeconomic conditions continue to deteriorate.
Odds are that the opportunity to make a quick buck has already passed.