From Iran to Yemen, and from Zimbabwe to Italy, we look at the prospects for conflict and include the Guardian‘s Troublespotometer rating
1. Iran
Iran’s claim to the number one position on the Guardian‘s 2010 Troublespotometer is overwhelming. It currently exhibits all the characteristics of a state hell-bent on self-destruction.
First, its repressive government is widely seen by its own people as illegitimate, after June’s “stolen” elections. Simmering political and social unrest exploded again in December and could yet become uncontainable.
Second, the country’s economy is in a frightful mess, with youth unemployment high and opportunity and investment low. This is all the more unforgivable, given Iran’s vast oil and gas riches.
Third, its top leaders, Supreme Leader Ali Khamanei and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, are zealous Islamic purists to whom the idea of compromise, with domestic or foreign foes, is wholly alien.
Fourth, Iran continues to work hard to make itself a pariah state, flouting the United Nations Security Council, the International Atomic Energy Agency, and the Non-Proliferation Treaty in pursuit of its “nuclear rights” (ie alleged atom bombs).
Fifth, Iran’s backing for violent, hardline groups in Lebanon, Palestine, Iraq and Yemen is increasingly seen by Arab neighbours such as Saudi Arabia, and their Western allies, as a direct security threat.
Finally, Ahmadinejad’s repeated suggestions that the world would be a happier place without the “Zionist entity” has convinced Israel that Iran poses an existential threat that may have to be dealt with by force, possibly as soon as this spring.
By all these measures and more, Iran is 2010’s runaway number one international headache.
Guardian Troublespotometer Rating: 80%
2. Pakistan-Afghanistan
Afghanistan was the focus of frenzied international attention in 2009, due to the belated realisation in western capitals that the United States and Nato were losing their war against the Taliban.
But Pakistan will capture more of the spotlight in 2010. One reason is that its president, Asif Ali Zardari, never an impressive figure, is being progressively stripped of his powers.
The beneficiary of the civilian government’s weakness is, as ever, Pakistan’s army and the notorious Inter-Services Intelligence agency — the people who brought you the Afghan Taliban.
It might not matter so much, except for the fact that the military, backed by public opinion, is increasingly resisting US attempts to extend the Afghan war into Pakistan.
This sounds wholly sensible. But the Americans won’t be denied. If necessary, they’ll take matters into their own hands. That potentially means drone attacks and cross-border incursions.
2010 may be the year when the Afghan war definitively spreads into ill-governed, unstable, nuclear-armed Pakistan. And why stop there? After that, there’s Kashmir and India itself.
Guardian Troublespotometer Rating: 65%
3. Israel-Palestine
The failure of Barack Obama’s 2009 attempt to jump-start negotiations between Benjamin Netanyahu’s government and a divided Palestinian leadership has raised fears of a violent backlash in 2010.
With Fatah and Hamas still at odds, with the ruins of Gaza unrepaired, with an unbending Israel focused on Iran rather than Palestinian peace, with the “moderate” Arab states discouraged, and with Obama distracted by a dozen other pressing issues, the possibility that the vacuum will be exploited by extremists is clear.
In 2010, the choice seems to be between smouldering, self-defeating mutual hostility or, if something is done accidentally-on-purpose to trigger it, a third intifada.
Guardian Troublespotometer Rating: 50%
4. Yemen
Yemen is the new “in-place” for al-Qaeda renegades and associated jihadis fed up with drone attacks in Af-Pak and unimpressed by Somalia’s limited facilities. Its ungoverned spaces make an ideal hiding place and training base. Plus, there’s a south-north, Sunni-Shi’ite civil war going on, which has drawn in Saudi Arabia and Iran on opposing sides.
The failed attempt by al-Qaeda in Yemen to bomb a US airliner on Christmas Day, following US and Yemeni government air raids on two of its alleged desert camps, demonstrated Yemen’s potential for causing global mayhem.
Now that Obama has vowed to track down the perpetrators, the US military will certainly be paying Yemen increased attention in 2010. It will get worse before it gets better.
Guardian Troublespotometer Rating: 45%
5. Sudan
Neglected, ostracised, conflict-riven and impoverished, Sudan is often described as a timebomb waiting to happen. 2010 may be the year it finally explodes. Scheduled national elections are one potential flashpoint, ethnic and tribal tensions are another. Darfur remains unresolved. North-south disputes over oil and resources may ignite at any time.
Friction with neighbours like Chad is part of this combustible mix. So, too, is the West’s ostracism of President Omar al-Bashir after his indictment by the international criminal court. Like some international banks, Sudan is supposed to be “too big to fail”. But it could all the same.
Guardian Troublespotometer Rating: 40%
6. Zimbabwe
With ageing President Robert Mugabe apparently determined to hold on to power until he dies (or even longer), hopes of a new start for Zimbabwe faded in 2009.
That makes 2010 a potentially difficult, even explosive year. How long can prime minister Morgan Tsvangirai pretend power-sharing is working? How long can South African President Jacob Zuma prop up Captain Bob?
Widespread instability in Zimbabwe, including a repeat spillover of refugees, could have serious implications for the football World Cup, due to be hosted by South Africa in June.
Guardian Troublespotometer Rating 30%
7. Xinjiang and Tibet
Tensions between majority Han Chinese and predominantly Muslim Uighurs in north-west China, which erupted into lethal rioting in 2009, will provide further flashpoints in 2010.
Much the same is true of pro-independence Tibetans, opposed to the influx of Chinese migrants into their conquered country, whose concerns are routinely ignored or mocked by Beijing.
Guardian Troublespotometer Rating: 25%
8. The Caucasus
When its comes to trouble spots, the names of Ingushetia, Dagestan and Chechnya, Azerbaijan, Armenia and Ngorno-Karabakh, Georgia, South Ossetia and Abkhazia just roll off the tongue.
Even if everywhere else in the world is quiet in 2010, there’s sure to be trouble in the Caucasus. The question is: how bad will it be?
Guardian Troublespotometer Rating: 20%
9. Belgium
Victory for David Cameron’s Eurosceptic Tories in Britain’s 2010 general election would take the battle for (or against) Europe to the Brussels doorstep of newly-installed EU chief commissar, Herman Von Rompuy. Like the chocolates, the former Belgian prime minister is said to have a hard exterior and a soft centre. Now we’ll see what he’s made of.
Guardian Troublespotometer Rating: 10%
10. Italy
One-man walking trouble spot and Vesuvius-sized national disgrace, Silvio Berlusconi, is a dead cert to cause more bother in 2010. After suffering a monumental loss of face in Milan, Italians fear the dodgy duce may fast-forward plans for unenlightened dictatorship.
Guardian Troublespotometer Rating: 99% – guardian.co.uk