/ 9 April 2010

Prepare for a few surprises

Prepare For A Few Surprises

The final season of Super 14 rugby shows how far we have come since the game went professional after the 1995 World Cup. For a decade South African teams moaned about their travel schedule in the Antipodes. Now the Bulls and Sharks expect to win as many as they lose on tour. For a decade the Crusaders expected to win the tournament every year and to have at least one other New Zealand outfit in the semifinals with them. Now the New Zealand Rugby Union fears for its local game, 18 months ahead of the next World Cup.

Some things remain the same, however. The Bulls battle to win in Auckland, the Lions and Cheetahs battle to win anywhere and the Stormers are like Samson after his haircut when they travel away from Newlands. And so we reach round nine of this year’s competition with just 12 points separating the top 10 teams in the log.

Incredibly, the Sharks still harbour semifinal ambitions after losing the first five games of their campaign. They have won three on the trot, including two in New Zealand, have a bye this weekend at precisely the right time, and a schedule heavy with home games after playing the Lions in Johannesburg next week. Given what has already transpired, it is asking too much of them to remain unbeaten from here on in, but the competition up to this point suggests they won’t have to.

Someone is going to fall over and the teams occupying the bottom four positions in the log right now will record some upset wins at strategic moments. The Force have already done so against the Stormers in Perth and it would not be beyond the bounds of possibility for the Sharks to finish above the Cape Town franchise at the end of log play.

That may seem unduly pessimistic, but the Stormers have a melancholy record away from these shores, and the occasional heroic victory does not alter that fact. When they return from tour this time they face the Crusaders at Newlands, the Sharks in Durban and finish against the Bulls in Cape Town. A few weeks ago, that fixture loomed as a possible home semifinal showdown, but last week’s results removed the bragging rights from both teams.

While the Sharks enjoy their enforced rest, this weekend features two key psychological milestones for the Stormers and Bulls. The Stormers have to get back on the bus against the Blues and will need to rekindle the spirit of 2004 when they won 51-23 at Eden Park, scoring no fewer than eight tries.

That was Schalk Burger’s debut season in Super Rugby and it was no coincidence that the Stormers reached the knockout stages that year. But even with the inexplicable inconsistency of the Blues, it’s hard to believe they will fail to pitch a week after humbling the Bulls.

As for the blue machine, the moment of truth is at hand because their opponents this week are the Chiefs in cold, wet Hamilton. Last year’s extraordinary final will seem a lifetime away for Victor Matfield’s men when they run on to the field this time around. Having humbled the Chiefs 61-17 at Loftus, the boot could be well and truly on the other foot.

For those who don’t believe that the Bulls could be well beaten on Saturday, it would be wise to remember what happened in 2008 when they visited Brisbane to play the Reds. It was just over 10 months since they had played the same side at Loftus in the final match of log play in the 2007 season.

That was the famous day when the Bulls unleashed a fury rarely seen and won 92-3. It secured them a home semifinal and two weeks later, they were champions for the first time.

But in Brisbane in 2008 the Bulls lost 40-8 to the Reds, a reversal of staggering proportions. The Bulls never recovered their equanimity and finished the campaign in 10th spot, before recovering to win the title again in 2009.

It goes without saying that defeat for the tourists would hardly be the end of the world. Their strong start to the season should guarantee them a place in the higher echelons, but nothing is easy.

In the Bulls’ favour is the absence of the Chiefs’ inspirational captain, Mils Muliaina, who will miss the rest of the campaign with a broken thumb.

The Chiefs looked like contenders again at the start of the year, but three successive defeats burst their bubble. They got back to winning ways with a laboured win over the Highlanders last week, with All Black flyhalf Stephen Donald contributing 17 points.
But let’s not forget that the Bulls are not just any bunch of homesick South African wanderers. They are the defending champions and the best side in the competition.

They have great players all over the park and a Hamilton mudbath would play into the hands of their mighty pack and the metronomic goal kicking of Morné Steyn. Just don’t be too surprised if the game refuses to follow the script.