With the unexpected interest-rate cut, the best-performing unit trust sectors over the quarter were those that benefit from lower short-term interest rates, like the banks. The Domestic-Equity-Financial sector was ranked first with an average return of 10,2%. The second-best sector was the Domestic-Real Estate-General category with 8,3%.
The worst-performing sectors were the Foreign-Fixed Interest-Varied Specialist and the Foreign-Fixed Interest-Bond categories with -3,8% and -1,2% respectively. This was due to higher mature-market bond yields (with corresponding lower capital values), extremely low money-market rates and the relative strength of the South African rand against other major international currencies.
Over 12 months the best-performing sectors were the Domestic-Equity-Financial, and Domestic-Equity-Value sectors with 55,7% and 52,3% respectively. As was the case over the quarter, the worst-performing sectors over the 12-month period were the Foreign-Fixed Interest-Varied Specialist, and the Foreign-Fixed Interest-Bond categories with returns of -18,5% and -10,7% respectively.
The three-year and five-year charts are topped by the domestic-fixed interest-money market and domestic-equity-resources & basic industries sectors with 9,9% and 22,9% per annum.
The best-performing fund over the last quarter was the Grindrod Global Property Income Fund with a return of 11,9%, followed by the Coronation Financial Fund with 11,7%. The worst fund over this period was the Prescient Global Income Feeder Fund A1 with -7,4%.
The best-performing fund over the last 12 months was the RMB Small/Mid-Cap Fund A with a return of 63,8%. Over the last three years it was the Cadiz Equity Ladder Fund with 19,4% per annum, and over the last five years the Old Mutual Mining & Resources Fund A with 26,5% per annum.
Best and worst sectors
Outlook
The strong recovery in global equity prices since the lows of March 2009 has been nothing less than astounding, and many investment professionals were surprised by the magnitude of the rally. While the current bull market remains intact, albeit for the time being, any signs of a renewed slowdown in economic growth or earnings disappointments could trigger a pull-back in equity prices.
The major risk to global equity markets is a double-dip recession in Western countries due to China’s efforts to cool its economy and the emergence of the debt crisis in the eurozone.
Global equity markets are likely to become more volatile as the probability of such a scenario increases. The secular bear market that started in 2008 will resume if such a scenario becomes a reality. That said, the near-term outlook remains positive and we do not believe the time is right to underweight equities now.
Dr Prieur du Plessis is the Plexus group chairperson