The African National Congress (ANC) faces an uphill battle in next year’s municipal elections, with KwaZulu-Natal being the only province where it is likely to make significant gains, research commissioned by the ruling party has reportedly found.
An ANC insider, who has seen the study, said it suggested that increased support in KwaZulu-Natal would stem from the continuing meltdown of the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP).
At the same time, ANC support in the Eastern Cape would remain stable because of the collapse of the only credible opposition there, the Congress of the People (Cope). But the research predicted that the Democratic Alliance (DA) would tighten its stranglehold on the Western Cape and that ANC support in other provinces would decline.
“There is a perception that the DA will focus on the North West as well, so extra effort will be needed there,” the insider said.
The ANC commissioned research from market research companies to inform its election manifesto and strategy, which has not yet been finalised.
Since the 2006 municipal poll there has been an increase in local service delivery protests and turnaround strategies have yet to show results.
The ANC admitted that its councillors have sometimes been found wanting, but insiders said this week that this is almost impossible to change. “It’s not as if the ANC has a truckload of decent councillors that it can just pick from and install,” one said.
Civil society conference
The ANC’s furious reaction to the civil society conference — organised by its alliance partner, Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu) — stems from its belief that civil society opposition will harm the party at the polls, said a member of the election strategy team.
“Having a movement launch a campaign which criticises the ANC’s delivery record will not be good for the election campaign,” said the ANC source, who is also a government official.
The conference in Ekurhuleni last month sparked a bitter row between the ANC and Cosatu, with the ruling party accusing the federation of being “oppositionist”.
This week Gwede Mantashe, the ANC secretary general, told reporters that Cosatu would be a part of the steering committees that would vet and choose councillors.
But he also warned that the union federation’s members were not the “private property of Cosatu”.
“There’s this myth that Cosatu has two-million members it can withdraw at any time, but a worker doesn’t sleep in a machine — they all live in communities,” Mantashe said.
“They participate in the ANC in their own right and are ANC members who are affiliated to a Cosatu union.”
Snobs
Mantashe said that Cosatu was being “factional” if it acted on its threat of withdrawing support for candidates it considered unfit for the job.
“You can’t say I like this one or that one; you have to abide by the decision taken,” Mantashe said.
A new list of candidate selection guidelines for would-be councillors says candidates can be excluded on grounds of criminal record, insolvency, unsound mind and living outside the municipality.
Mantashe said some councillors were regarded by their constituencies as “snobs”.
“They tell us [that] if you want to see this guy, you have to stand by the gate and beg to be let in. And then when you get into the house you have to take off your shoes.”