The new Super Rugby tournament kicks off this weekend without the Stormers. The Cape side have a bye, which may seem like a waste of time, but will at least allow them to run a critical eye over the other 14 teams before they take the field against the Lions at Newlands next week.
Last year’s runners-up have what looks like a favourable draw, although the proof of the pudding will be in the eating, not just for the Stormers, but for everyone. The revamped schedule means that the Stormers don’t have to leave these shores until the second week in May. To put that in perspective, by the time they change time zones, they will already have played the Sharks twice, three times if you count the friendly between the sides a fortnight ago. They have some tough internal trips, not least those to Pretoria and Durban, but they will have 10 games and another bye under their belt before having to present their passports to anyone. This is radically different from previous competitions and it will take some getting used to.
As for their chances of success this time around, the familiar problems are stacking up. There is a lack of grunt in the tight five, accentuated by the pre-season injury to hooker Tiaan Liebenberg. Compared with the Bulls and the Sharks, the Stormers are desperately short of quality forwards and that will probably come back to bite them at the sharp end of the tournament.
Then there is the matter of who will play flyhalf. With Peter Grant still in Japan, the coaching staff has had to rely on Elgar Watts from the Boland and two under-21 players, Lionel Cronje and Gary van Aswegen, in pre-season games. Compare that with the Lions, who can now call on Elton Jantjies, Butch James and André Pretorius at pivot, and it becomes obvious that the Stormers have issues.
Nevertheless, last year’s achievements were not made with smoke and mirrors and any team that can call on the services of Andries Bekker, Schalk Burger, Jean de Villiers, Jacque Fourie and Bryan Habana must be taken seriously. The tournament’s most parsimonious defence will keep them afloat during the hard times and a spot in the last six is not out of the question.
In theory, the new format, which puts a much greater emphasis on local derbies, should be a shot in the arm for teams like the Cheetahs and the Lions.
Though they rarely struggle to make the semifinals of the Currie Cup, the Bloemfontein-based side has battled in Super Rugby and not one of the current squad knows what it is like to win in the antipodes.
Bulls can take nothing for granted
But scratch the surface and you’ll discover that part of the reason for the Cheetahs’ relative success in the Currie Cup is its position in the season. It is many years since there was enough space in the year for the Springboks to play regularly in the Currie Cup, whereas there have been times when Super Rugby has become little more than an extended Springbok trial.
This year’s draw provides us with an early opportunity to gauge the strength of the South African sides. The Lions play the Bulls and the Stormers in the first two weeks, and the Cheetahs have the Sharks in Durban and the Bulls in Bloemfontein.
The Cheetahs lost fewer players than usual to the other provinces at the end of last season, but that may be because they are at a particularly low ebb right now. In contrast, the Lions have been on a global signing spree and may be almost unrecognisable from the team that lost all 13 of its Super 14 matches last year.
Certainly, the Bulls can take nothing for granted when they open their defence in Johannesburg this weekend. The Lions rarely need motivation for the trans-Jukskei derby and there is always the chance of catching the Bulls cold, before the blue machine has had a chance to click into gear.
But, as with the Stormers, the tight five might be the Achilles heel for the Lions. It is asking an awful lot of Franco van der Merwe and the engine room to match the sheer quality that the Bulls have on offer. The Lions may have to live off scraps and hope that their undoubtedly gifted backline can snatch a few scores against the run of play.
In Durban a similar dynamic should be at play, although for some reason the Sharks always struggle against the Cheetahs. An unimpressive build-up in pre-season games by the Sharks also needs to be borne in mind, although management insisted that the squad was in the best shape ever going into the tournament following a week of preparation in Rustenburg.
As ever, the Cheetahs will probably have to adopt the role of fly in the ointment rather than serious contender for a play-off place. The Sharks, on the other hand, have lofty ambitions and if they are to be fulfilled, this is a game they should win with something to spare.