A survey conducted among 2 000 urban adults in mid-February suggested 73% of people would vote again for the same party in the local government elections, while 13% were undecided, TNS Research Surveys said on Tuesday.
“This also suggests that, even amongst those who do plan to go to the polls, over an eighth in February were still to decide whilst a seventh represent the potential swing vote,” TNS spokesperson Neil Higgs said.
Among those who said they did not plan to vote, 56% said that if they did, they would not vote for the same party as before.
“It seems from this that, if those not planning to vote could be persuaded to vote, the swings might be much larger,” Higgs said in a statement.
Even though claimed turnout levels were likely to be overstated, the study suggested that the turnout in metropolitan areas would be highest in Durban, Port Elizabeth, Bloemfontein and Gauteng’s East Rand.
Voter turnout would be lowest in Soweto, the Vaal Triangle/South Rand and East London.
“Differences by age are lower than might be expected but claimed turnout levels do drop amongst younger people.”
The survey also showed that of those happy with their choice of political party in 2009 and who would vote for the same party, 89% claimed that they would vote on May 18.
This figure dropped to 43% among people unhappy with their previous vote, and who would change the party they voted for.
“This is a clear indication that dissatisfaction with one’s previous party will be likely to be one of the causes of not voting on May 18.”
Service delivery was a part of this dissatisfaction.
Higgs added that 56% of people planning to vote were not happy with service delivery they received from their municipality, but this rose to 67% among those not planning to vote.
He said it should be kept in mind that some parties had merged.
“Indeed, it does appear, overall, that there are a large number of people lacking a political home at present.”
The study was conducted among 2 000 adults — 1 260 black, 385 white, 240 coloured and 115 Indian/Asian — in the seven major metropolitan areas.
“The studies use probability sampling techniques and are fully representative of the major metropolitan areas,” Higgs said. – Sapa