Zimbabwe’s opposition party, the Movement for Democratic Change, said, should it win the election, it had prepared itself for the possibility of a coup by the military, which it said might not accept the results.
MDC-T spokesperson Douglas Mwonzora said his party was concerned about the behaviour and utterances of the service chiefs in the past, hence the party’s push for security sector reforms.
He said it was unfortunate that Zanu-PF refused to implement the reforms, despite being urged to do so by the Southern African Development Community (SADC).
“We believe we will win the elections. But as a party we have worked out all possible situations and scenarios that may occur should we win, including the threats of a coup.
“We have an action plan for all scenarios, although we cannot publicly share it,” he said. “But let me say that if they are foolish enough to stage a coup, the coup will not be against MDC-T, but it will be against Zimbabweans, SADC, the African Union and the international community.”
On January 9 2002, just two months before the presidential elections, Zimbabwe’s military and security chiefs made an announcement that sent shivers down the spines of ordinary Zimbabweans.
The vow
“Let it be known that the highest office in the land is a straitjacket whose occupant is expected to observe the objectives of the liberation struggle. We will therefore not accept, let alone support or salute, anyone with a different agenda that threatens the very existence of our sovereignty, our country and our people,” they said in a statement read by the then commander of the Zimbabwe Defence Forces (ZDF), the late General Vitalis Zvinavashe.
Zvinavashe was flanked by Zimbabwe National Army commander Constantine Chiwenga (now ZDF commander), Air Force of Zimbabwe commander Air Marshal Perrence Shiri and police commissioner Augustine Chihuri when he declared that the securocrats would stage a coup in the event that MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai won the election.
This week, Newsday reported that retired Brigadier General Livingstone Chineka had told a village rally in Masvingo, south of Harare, that the army would dislodge Tsvangirai if he won the poll.
Security sector analyst and executive director of the African Public Policy and Research Institute, Dr Martin Rupiya — a retired army senior officer — said security commanders viewed a Zanu-PF loss as a loss to themselves, largely because of the wealth they had accumulated under Mugabe’s patronage system.
Because of that, Rupiya said, the military was a threat to a smooth transition. Sources within the military said that the fear of losing their assets and privileges if Mugabe was defeated was the driving force behind coup threats by military chiefs, rather than their public utterances to the effect that they viewed Tsvangirai and the MDC formations as sellouts.
Several service chiefs — among them Zimbabwe Defence Force Commander Constantine Chiwenga; the commissioner general of the Zimbabwe Republic Police, Augustine Chihuri; and Majors General Trust Mugoba, Douglas Nyikayaramba and Martin Chedondo — have recently declared their loyalty to Mugabe and Zanu-PF.
Only the best for military commanders
Almost all military commanders were allocated some of the best farms during the land-reform programme and were also beneficiaries of the government agricultural mechanisation programme, under which they received state-of-the-art equipment such as combine harvesters, planters and tractors for free. They also acquired game farms under that programme.
Some of those who are retired from the army have also been deployed in various strategic state institutions and parastatals, such as the National Railways of Zimbabwe, the Grain Marketing Board and the Zimbabwe Tourism Authority.
In recent months, the military has also extended itself into business and runs diamond mines through Mbada Diamonds, Marange Resources and Anjin Investments in the Chiadzwa area.
The army is also a shareholder in China Africa Sunlight Energy, a company involved in a $2.1- billion project to exploit methane gas and coal deposits in the Gwayi and Lupane areas of Matabeleland North.
In the run-up to the 2008 presidential run-off election, the army was widely accused of perpetrating violence in areas where Tsvangirai had done well in the first round of voting. Security analysts believe there are chances of the sector intervening in the same way again.
Rupiya said the fact that SADC wanted security chiefs to state publicly that they would uphold the Constitution was a reflection that they took the coup threats seriously.
Maputo declaration
“[In its] June Maputo declaration, [SADC] directed the president to ensure, in writing, that the securocrats recant their 2002 mantra,” said Rupiya.
Rupiya said the AU was also aware of the military threat, given the military’s past violent interventions. He said Zimbabwe’s security sector was so partisan, that one could not rule out the possibility of it unleashing violence again. Zanu-PF has also been reported to have deployed senior officers to co-ordinate its campaign, something that Rupiya said was worrying.
Gwinyayi Dzinesa, a senior researcher with the conflict prevention and risk analysis division at the Institute for Security Studies, said that he did not believe security chiefs would stage a coup, although they might try to interfere with the electoral process should the election go to a run-off.
Dzinesa said SADC and the AU, as guarantors of Zimbabwe’s global political agreement, should come up with strategies on how to best handle a possible MDC victory.