/ 11 November 2013

Economic week ahead: SA retail sales, Europe’s GDP

Economic Week Ahead: Sa Retail Sales, Europe's Gdp

Over the coming days, South Africa will report on retail sales, the US Senate will hold confirmation hearings on economist Janet Yellen and Europe will report on economic growth. Also, China's leaders will gather to discuss plans for economic reform. Here is your guide:  

Africa
Retail sales figures are the big item on South Africa's light data diary this week. Statistics South Africa will release its latest retail data on Wednesday followed by wholesale and motor trade reports on Thursday. 

Consensus is that retail sales growth slowed to 2.7% growth from a year earlier in September from 3% growth in August. The outlook for retail spending in Africa's largest economy remains mixed. 

Speaking last month, South African Reserve Bank Deputy Governor Francois Groepe said that the outlook for household consumption expenditure remains uncertain as high wage settlements are counterbalanced by low employment, high debt levels and rising prices.

Elsewhere on the continent this week, Nigeria will release second quarter current account figures. Senegal will report October's consumer price index, Angola will release September's net reserves and Ghana will report July's gross reserves and June's money supply figures. 

United States
The National Federation of Independent Business's October small business optimism index is the first item on America's comparatively light economic calendar this week. Economists expect Tuesday's release to show that the index slipped to 93.5 in October from 93.9 in September. 

On Wednesday, the US treasury's monthly budget report is likely to reveal that government racked up a $95-billion deficit during the first month of the 2014 US federal fiscal year, down from a $120-billion deficit recorded in October 2012. 

On Thursday, markets will turn their attention to unemployment figures and trade data. Analysts expect weekly jobless claims figures to show that 330 000 Americans filed for first time unemployment benefits in the week ended November 9, down from 336 000 in the week prior. Trade data is likely to show that the country's trade gap widened slightly to $39.0-billion in September from $38.8-billion in August. 

The US Senate Banking Committee will also hold hearings on the nomination of Janet Yellen to succeed Ben Bernanke as chair of the Federal Reserve. Markets will be watching for any indication by the nominee that she will end the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing programme sooner than currently expected.

On Friday, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Empire State manufacturing index – a regional activity index based on a survey of manufacturers in New York State – is likely to jump to 5.0 in November from 1.5 in October. 

Finally, economists expect industrial production data – also scheduled for release on Friday – to show that output slowed to 0.2% growth in October from 0.6% growth in September. Capacity utilisation is expected to have remained unchanged at 78.3%. 

Europe
After last week's decision by the European Central Bank to lower interest rates to record low levels, markets will be paying particularly close attention to this week's data releases for signs of weakness.

Eurostat, the European Union's statistics office, will release their latest's industrial production data for the eurozone on Wednesday. Factory output in the 18-nation currency bloc rose by 1% in August from July, but is expected to have contracted by 0.3% in September.

The agency will release their first estimate for the eurozone's third quarter economic growth on Thursday. Consensus is that gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.1% in the three months ended in September, down from 0.3% growth in the second quarter. Separate reports covering Germany and France – the continent's two largest economies are likely to show growth of 0.3% and 0.1%, respectively. 

Outside of the eurozone, markets will be paying close attention to the Bank of England's latest inflation report on Wednesday. Governor Mark Carney pledged in August not to raise interest rates until unemployment fell to at least 7%, something the central bank currently forecasts will happen during the second half of 2016. Wednesday's statement is likely to bring this timeline forward, in line with market expectations for a rates rise during the third quarter of 2015. 

Also on Wednesday, figures from Britain's Office of National Statistics are expected to show that the country's unemployment rate fell to 7.6% in the third quarter and that inflation eased to 2.4% in October from 2.7% in September. 

Asia 
China's top leaders are gathered in Beijing this week for meetings on economic reform. China's ruling Communist Party is holding its third plenary session of the 18th Central Committee through Tuesday. Markets will be watching closely for hints at President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Li Keqiang's plans. 

Among other reforms, analysts are expecting China to reduce investment entry barriers, announce rural land-use reforms, list most of the currently unlisted state-owned enterprises on the stock market and change the way in which local municipalities access bond markets. 

Beyond these meetings, authorities will release last month's month supply and new yuan lending data this week. Analysts expect money supply growth to have remained steady at 14.2%, year on year. New yuan lending likely slowed to 580-billion yuan in October from 587-billion in September.

Elsewhere in the region, the Bank of Japan will release its corporate goods price index (CGPI) and Japan's Cabinet office will release machinery orders data on Wednesday. Consensus is that the CGPI rose 2.6% from a year earlier, the highest reading since a 4.5% gain recorded in October 2008. Machinery orders likely fell 2.1% in September from August.