South Africa – Africa's largest economy – will release a slew of economic data over the coming days.
Economists and investors will be on the lookout for South Africa's latest current account figures this week. The country's persistent current account deficit has contributed to a weak local currency and fuelled concerns that the continent's largest economy is particularly vulnerable to policy decisions taken outside its borders.
Elsewhere in the world, America's latest jobs report, rates decisions by the European Central Bank and Bank of England and updates on the health of China's manufacturing sector will keep markets on their toes. Here is your guide:
Africa
South Africa – Africa's largest economy – will release a slew of economic data over the coming days. Monday will bring November's purchasing managers' index (PMI) readings from the Bureau for Economic Research and automotive sales figures from the National Association of Automobile Manufacturers of South Africa.
The South African Reserve Bank's (SARB's) quarterly bulletin will follow on Tuesday. Analysts will be paying particularly close attention to the third quarter current account data – the broadest measure of trade in goods and services – included in the release. The size and persistence of South Africa's current account deficit – which has remained at 5% of gross domestic product (GDP) or larger since the first quarter of 2012 – has led many economists to believe that the country is particularly vulnerable to the effects of reduced stimulus activity by the US Federal Reserve.
FNB will release its November house price index (HPI) on Wednesday. Standard Bank's November HPI will follow on Friday along with SARB's November reports of reserves and the South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry's November business confidence index.
Elsewhere on the continent, Nigeria – Africa's second largest economy – will release second quarter trade figures on Monday. On Tuesday, Senegal will release November's consumer price index readings and Uganda's central bank will announce its interest rates decisions. And on Friday, Egypt will report gross reserves data and decisions on deposit and lending rates.
October money supply figures are expected from Namibia and Morocco sometime this week along with Angola's statement of reserves for September.
United States
Friday's employment situation report is the big item on America's economic calendar this week. Economists surveyed by Reuters expect the data to show that the US economy created 185 000 non-farm jobs in November, down from 204 000 in October. The country's unemployment rate may drop to 7.2% from 7.3% previously.
Friday's report will cap three-days of jobs data in the world's largest economy that includes the ADP National Employment Report on Wednesday and weekly unemployment figures on Thursday. Analysts expect ADP's report to show that private sector payrolls increased by 185 000 in November, up from an increase of 130 000 in October. Jobless claims probably edged up to 322 000 in the week ended November 30 from 316 000 in the week prior.
Labour force data is always closely monitored, but will be particularly scrutinised this week as markets look for additional clues to the timing of the Federal Reserve's planned reduction in stimulus. Officials have said that their 'tapering' of the central bank's $85-billion per month in asset purchases is tied to improvements in the US jobs market, amongst other variables.
Beyond this week's jobs data, economists and investors will be on the lookout for the Institute for Supply Management (ISM)'s manufacturing index readings on Monday. The ISM's non-manufacturing index will follow on Wednesday along with international trade and new home sales figures. Thursday will bring preliminary third quarter GDP figures and factory orders data. The University of Michigan will release its consumer sentiment index on Friday.
Europe
The European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England will take centre stage this week as officials from both central banks announce their latest policy decisions. Both announcements are scheduled for Thursday. Although no policy changes are expected from either institution, markets will be looking for hints of future action, particularly from the ECB.
The ECB surprised markets at its November meeting by reducing the eurozone's benchmark interest rate to 0.25%, a record low. The move came after statistics revealed that inflation in the eurozone slowed to a mere 0.7% in October, raising the worrying spectre of deflation (falling prices) in portions of the common currency bloc.
Since the ECB's last meeting, data showed that the region's inflation rate ticked up to 0.9% in November. Although this is an encouraging sign that officials may be confronting disinflation (slowing price rises) – as they insist – rather than deflation, some economists remain convinced that the ECB will still need to step-in with further support for the long-struggling eurozone economy. Markets will pay particularly close attention to ECB staff forecasts of inflation and economic growth on Thursday for clues to future policy interventions.
Also on Thursday, the UK's Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, will deliver his Autumn Statement and the office for budget responsibility will release its updated forecasts for the country's economy. Consensus is that the OBR will upgrade its 2013 growth estimate to 1.4% from 0.6% previously and its 2014 forecast to 2.3% from 1.8%.
Asia
Two manufacturing PMIs released on Sunday and Monday in China pointed toward continued expansion for the country's massive manufacturing sector.
China's National Bureau of Statistics reported that the country's official PMI – which is tilted toward larger, state-owned companies – stood at 51.4 in November, unchanged from October. The final HSBC/Markit PMI – which is constructed based on a survey of smaller, private-sector firms – stood at 50.8 in November, down slightly from 50.9 in October. Any reading above 50 indicates expansion on both indices.
Markets are likely to welcome the positive PMI readings as a sign that officials in Beijing can continue with sweeping structural reforms to the country's economy without lowering growth to uncomfortable levels. Officials are attempting to shift China's economy away from a heavy reliance on exports and investments toward more consumption-driven growth.
Consensus is that China's economy – the world's second largest – will grow 7.5% in the fourth quarter of 2013, in line with government expectations. For the year as a whole, growth may reach 7.6%. Although this would be a comparatively high rate of expansion by global standards, it would mark China's lowest level of growth in more than 10-years.
Elsewhere in the region, the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its December rates decision on Tuesday and the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) will report third quarter growth figures on Wednesday. Markets expect officials to leave the central bank's benchmark rate on hold at 2.5% and for the ABS figures to show that Australia's economic growth picked up during the three months ended in September.