/ 6 December 2013

Raised deficit and US tapering fears put squeeze on rand

The Reserve Bank on Tuesday that showed that the current account deficit had slipped to 6.8% of GDP.
The Reserve Bank on Tuesday that showed that the current account deficit had slipped to 6.8% of GDP.

A range of data in conjunction with renewed fears about "tapering in the United States culminated in a perfect storm this week, causing the rand to drop to levels last seen at the height of the recession in early 2009.

The rand dropped to 10.49 against the dollar on Wednesday, following economic data from the South African Reserve Bank on Tuesday that showed that the current account deficit had slipped to 6.8% of national gross domestic product, at R233-billion, and indicating that South Africa's imports by far exceed its exports.

Subdued international demand meant that manufacturers were unable to take full advantage of the weaker currency to boost exports, and the market was little swayed by the seasonally adjusted HSBC Purchasing Managers' Index, which registered 51.6 in November from 51.5 in October, partly as new orders increased.

The Reserve Bank said strikes in the automotive industry had hampered exports of manufactured goods, with vehicle shipments dropping "substantially" in the third quarter.

Automobile sale "figures from the National Association of Automobile Manufacturers, released this week, showed that new vehicle sales had indeed slowed in November.

Domestic new vehicle sales, at 50 806 units, showed a decline of 2 459 vehicles, or 4.6%, from the 53 265 units sold in November last year.

Export sales
Export sales also declined year on year, by 4.8%.

The association said that the latest vehicle sales data reflected the effects of a slowing economy, moderation in consumer demand, as well as supply disruptions due to the ongoing strike in the car carrier industry.

The Reserve Bank's quarterly "bulletin also reported slowed growth in gross domestic expenditure, recording an annualised rise of 1.9% in the third quarter from 2.7% in the second quarter.

Growth in real spending by households slowed to the lowest rate since the third quarter of 2009, at 2.3%, from an annualised 2.8% in the three months ending June.

There was also a moderation in disposable income growth, and household debt improved slightly, but remained high.

The Reserve Bank recorded a substantial inflow of portfolio investment in the third quarter. Foreign portfolio investment grew to R48.8-billion compared with an outflow of R5.2-billion in the second quarter.

But, according to Mike Keenan, currency strategist at Absa, outflows as of the end of November were R31.9-billion in total: R17-billion in equities and R14.8-billion in bonds. “November was horrific. The tide has turned," he said.

Outflows have probably been prompted by increased fear that the US Federal Reserve will soon begin tapering off its $85-billion a month asset purchasing programme as the economy shows signs of recovery, especially in the jobs market.

US bonds also traded lower on Wednesday in anticipation of the Automatic Data Processing employment report for November, which showed substantial job creation.