DA leader Mmusi Maimane this week pointed fingers at national government for the Cape’s water crisis.
NEWS ANALYSIS
Democratic Alliance leader Mmusi Maimane believes his party still stands a good chance of toppling the governing ANC, despite the current problems facing the party, including the water crisis in Cape Town, the fallout with the city’s mayor, Patricia de Lille, the election of Cyril Ramaphosa as ANC president and the DA’s power-sharing frailties.
With President Jacob Zuma now no longer a force to be reckoned with in the ANC, the DA’s campaign for the 2019 elections is likely to prove to be more difficult.
Signs of panic in the party started showing this week when its leaders, including Maimane, attempted to shift the blame for its failure to deal effectively with the water crisis in Cape Town on the water and sanitation department, and seemingly throwing De Lille under the bus at the same time.
With the impending reality of water Day Zero, Maimane this week threatened legal action to force the government to act. Day Zero will see most taps in Cape Town run dry and residents queueing to collect their allocated 25 litres of water a day.
Speaking to the Mail & Guardian after his address at public meeting in Athlone, Cape Town, on Wednesday, Maimane admitted the crisis could negatively affect the DA’s electoral ambitions, which he believed called for a reminder of who was to blame for the current water crisis.
“I agree that this is an electoral issue. That’s why it’s important to remind the electorate of who runs what and who is responsible for what,” he said.
Complicating matters for the official opposition is what some see as a deliberate effort to target De Lille and this could cost the party coloured votes.
The party is investigating charges of misconduct levelled against the mayor. It accuses her of interfering in the appointments of senior staff in the city, having an autocratic leadership style and stripping decision-making structures of their powers. The case has seen the DA being criticised for using and dumping leaders, following De Lille’s claims that there was a political plot to push her out.
In Nelson Mandela Bay, the DA’s coalition agreement with the United Democratic Movement (UDM) hangs by a thread following the removal of UDM member Mongameli Bobani as deputy mayor following claims that he was colluding with the ANC.
UDM leader Bantu Holomisa has accused the DA of bullying smaller opposition parties — and has come out in defence of De Lille against a party that he says has double standards.
In Johannesburg, the DA has faced accusations of nepotism and tender fraud, which resulted in the axing of Rabelani Dagada, a member of the mayoral committee for finance. In addition, the ANC used evidence of financial irregularities in the city to table a motion of no confidence in DA mayor Herman Mashaba.
A senior DA party member said this week its 2019 campaign would be particularly affected by the ANC’s recent change of leadership.
“Our job is going to be harder going into 2019. You can’t use the same strategy with Cyril Ramaphosa that you use with Jacob Zuma. We’re prepared to take on an ANC led by Cyril Ramaphosa, while noting that it’s not going to be as easy as fighting Jacob Zuma.”
But Maimane downplayed the possible effect the Ramaphosa factor would have on opposition parties, particularly the DA.
Ramaphosa appears to be putting his money where his mouth is in the fight against corruption. Since his election as ANC leader in December, the government has announced the establishment of a judicial commission of inquiry into state capture, and some top Eskom executives implicated in state capture have resigned.
But Maimane said this did not worry him.
“There is a lot of talk about Ramaphosa [going to bring change] but he isn’t new. He has been there all along. I wish him well, but how can I say he has the ability to deliver when the issues with [Free State Premier and ANC secretary general] Ace Magashule’s province, [Mpumlanga Premier and ANC deputy president] DD Mabuza, state capture and others are still on the table?
“When we speak of corruption … you can see that the ANC has sponsored corruption. It’s about more than just Jacob Zuma.
“In most of the municipalities, we inherited a mess from the ANC. If you look at Johannesburg, there was an almost R50-billion debt and the DA is turning that around. Tshwane was practically bankrupt and the DA is turning that around.
“So, with Cyril we mustn’t suddenly say there is a new broom that’s going to sweep clean. It’s an old broom that has always been there,” Maimane said.
On Wednesday, in front of a full Joseph Stone Auditorium in Athlone, Maimane launched the DA’s #DefeatDayZero campaign and showed that everything is political, including nature.
Maimane made it clear that Cape Town residents faced the threat of water cuts because of the incompetence of the national government. This was after insisting it was not the time for political finger-pointing.
In response, the ANC in the Western Cape has accused the DA of trying to pass the blame for its own incompetence during its years in provincial government.
“We are calling on the DA to accept responsibility for failing governance, stop blaming national, and then start being mature. Don’t have private DA meetings. Open up because you have created this crisis,” said ANC provincial secretary Faiez Jacobs.
The absence of De Lille, who has been excluded by the party from the water response programme, made visible the infighting in the DA and the tussle for power.
As if to hide De Lille, a thorn in the party’s side, from public view, Maimane was flanked by Western Cape Premier Helen Zille, Western Cape DA leader Bonginkosi Madikizela and other members of the response team.
Once close allies, Zille and Maimane are believed to have fallen out mainly because of differences over the party’s new policy direction. Zille’s utterances on colonialism also saw her forced to step down from all party structures and ordered to have all her utterances regarding the party vetted.
Political analyst Somadoda Fikeni said the move to bring Zille on board was likely to result in more fights for power and would intensify internal fractures.
“No sooner has Helen Zille become the high profile person over this matter, Maimane says he is going to directly take control. So, when you have too many hands, it may become a political football,” he said.
Still, the DA believes it still has a chance of bringing the ANC’s support below the 50% mark in 2019. In the 2016 municipal elections, the party increased its national support from 23.94% in 2011 to 26.9%.
Although the DA claimed to have made a large dent in the ANC’s voter base, the ANC lost 8.04% of its support between the 2011 and the 2016 elections. With a growth of only 2.96%, it is evident the DA was not fully able to capitalise on the ANC’s weaknesses.
Political commentators believe it is likely that those who either voted for the opposition in 2016 or stayed away from the polls will return to the ANC because of the renewed sense of hope that new leadership brings.
Political analyst Susan Booysen said, even in the event that the ANC’s support did fall below 50%, the DA would probably find it difficult to negotiate deals with other parties.
“If it is a Cyril ANC and people like the UDM are a bit angry with the DA and the EFF [Economic Freedom Fighters] can’t find reasons for its existence, to the extent that Zuma was the reason for its existence, then there’s always a chance that those smaller opposition parties could form an alliance with the ANC. That cannot be ruled out,” she said.
April could either make or break the DA’s 2019 ambitions. That is when Day Zero is likely to be reached. It is also the month when the DA will hold its national congress, where there will probably be a tussle over leadership positions.
It is also the month in which the DA will unveil its official election campaign, which will have to be crafted to answer to all the problems that it suddenly finds itself facing, both natural and political.