Helmo Preuss
Guest Author
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/ 2 March 2004

Stable interest rates are here to stay

Central banks prefer stability to almost any other quality and many have made either price or financial market stability their official policy. The elimination of South Africa’s forward book removes a historic source of vulnerability for the rand and will now allow the SARB to build its gross foreign reserves.

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/ 26 February 2004

Why flexible inflation targeting is best

A recent working paper by Eric Parrado of the International Monetary Fund’s monetary and financial systems department argues that flexible inflation targeting, which takes into account inflation as well as output, is superior to strict inflation targeting, where meeting the inflation target is the unique objective.

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/ 16 February 2004

Budget could bring positive surprise

The 2004/5 Budget to be presented on February 18 could provide a positive surprise to the South African capital market, Efficient Group chief economist Dawie Roodt said on Monday. "I believe the minister of finance will reduce the call on the domestic capital market, so as to keep long-term yields in single digits," he said.

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/ 6 February 2004

SA privatisations stalled in 2003

The privatisation of South African state-owned enterprises (SOE) seems to have stalled, which, given independent research consultancy BusinessMap Foundation’s 2002 annual review title of <i>A Sense of Movement</i>, is very ironic. BusinessMap’s 2003 review is titled <i>A Change of Pace</i>.

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/ 2 February 2004

Beware of central bank surprises

Central banks are very powerful determinants of interest rates and exchange rates. It has therefore been very disconcerting to financial market participants that the norm since December 2003 has been for central banks to spring surprises. The first major central bank to surprise the markets was the South African Reserve Bank.

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/ 2 February 2004

North West worst spending offender

The South African province of the North West was the worst offender in spending or alternatively keeping track of its capital spending of South Africa’s nine provinces. In the first nine months of the fiscal year, the North West housing department spent only 2,6% of its capital expenditure allocation of R390-million.

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/ 19 January 2004

Will the rand be less volatile this year?

The rand’s near-18% move between a best level of R6,2348 a dollar on January 6 and R7,5750 on January 16 makes it unlikely that the rand’s volatility this year will be less than 30%, but the very stable year of 1999 started equally poorly, as the rand traded between R5,665 and R6,31 in January 1999.

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/ 10 December 2003

Strength of rand warrants a rate cut

The strength of the rand warrants a further rate cut, Metropolitan Asset Manager’s economist Rejane Woodroffe said in her latest economic overview. "The sustained strength of the rand has continued to surprise … and paves the way for a further interest rate cut at this year’s final monetary policy committee meeting," she said.