Just transition needs to look after the most vulnerable and work for societies relying on coal.
From about the 1950s there was notable progress. People saw more wealth, and welfare, life expectancy increased, infant mortality dropped and access to food, water, energy, transport and communications improved. These changes resulted in the greatest level of material well-being ever experienced. But it came at a cost.
Associated with the gains, were the negatives. Some of these are environmental degradation, reduced food security, water scarcity and air pollution, among others. In South Africa, the problems are stark – wider inequality, higher unemployment and increased poverty.
A fundamental restructuring in socio-technical systems usually happens every 40 to 50 years. We have had an industrial revolution from about the 1770s, followed by the ages of steam, railways, steel, electricity, and then information and communications technology in the 1970s.
We are now undergoing major changes towards a system that includes a digital and green technologies revolution based on sustainability issues. Some have said that these changes are happening much faster than society can adapt.
The old way of doing things is no more. The economic, political and business models tailored to the experience of the 20th century are no longer appropriate in the 21st century. The last century was predicated on using fossil fuels, mass production, mechanisation and centralisation.
Now, a major restructuring of systems, a deep transition, is upon us. That includes different modes of production, provision and consumption. Whether we like it or not, these changes are already here. For example, there is a growing focus on decentralisation of production such as electricity generation, collective and shared consumption such as Uber and Airbnb, and new forms of currency and business models such as cryptocurrencies.
But not everyone will have the means or the resources to adapt to such changes, hence, the emphasis on “just” and “inclusive”.
To move with the changing times, we need to have the ability not only to absorb the ecological and social costs from the past such as the consequences of climate change but also forge ahead with a new world.
This can involve fundamentally embracing new technologies, new business models and new kinds of relationships between the state, market and civil society, with a focus on sustainability. These are both exciting and uneasy times because uncertainty and complexity come with these shifts.
The South African case
In a country that has high inequality, social values become important, particularly those related to energy and affordability. The social costs must not be separated from the technological choices. Specifically, South Africa is experiencing developmental challenges that include widening inequality with a Gini-coefficient of 0.6, an unemployment rate of 34%, and a slow real economic growth of less than 2% GDP annually.
South Africa is part and parcel of such a major global transformation. But the just energy transitions cannot be understood as a technological intervention alone. Instead there is a need to focus on the implications on society as front and centre. Questions need to be asked, on who benefits or loses from the transitions, why and how?
Why do we need to change?
Sustainable energy development is part of a much broader set of issues facing the country. To move forward, decision-makers need to realise that some of the underlying issues are rooted in ideologies that constrain progress.
There is a need for change because the current socio-economic system is:
- Exclusive, which contributes to widening inequality (particularly income inequality).
How do we then include more people to participate in the economy?
- Business and ownership models that place advantages on those who have the money, power and influence.
How do we distribute the benefits of just energy transition more fairly with regard to, for example, ownership of infrastructure, sense of place and productive income?
- Externalities that include, for example, worsening environmental degradation, air quality and acid mine drainage.
- There is also ideological and cognitive lock-in that is stuck in the past, and these are the more difficult parts of the transitions to change.
In essence, new approaches must include social dimensions like:
- how are trusts earned between partners,
- who has access to the benefits or not,
- how is social legitimacy secured,
- how do we disentangle prevailing ideologies,
- are there skills development,
- what are end-users preferences,
- can we shape different types of governance systems that are relevant,
- what are the new kinds of finance that are needed and
- who shares the risks and rewards.
Viewed in this way, we start to appreciate that the just component of the energy transition refers to interventions that do not exacerbate the “triple challenges” of inequality,
A whole-of-society intervention
There is a need to view the just energy transition as a whole of society approach, which consists of multiple partners, that will unfold in different ways in different parts of the country, over varying timeframes.
In the interim, there is an inevitable wall of resistance or inertia because of the myriad issues that need to be dealt with. This socio-technical transition process is full of complexities, uncertainties, back and forth negotiations, and implementation struggles.
It is fair to say that South Africa is one of the few countries in the world trying to formulate a just energy transitions finance plan, as was recently announced at the United Nations Climate Change Conference, COP27, in Egypt.
Viewed from a socio-technical perspective, these transitions are a fundamental restructuring of how the world functions; it’s a systems wide change. But because these interventions are shaping new ground, patience in the experimentation on policy sandboxes that tests boundaries of legal, regulatory frameworks and social outcomes are needed.
The important recognition is that the just energy transitions are not an end in themselves, but rather are meant to transform the whole of society, where injustices of past economic systems are overturned. In this way a wider participation of the new low carbon economy is enabled, benefits are broadened and capacities are developed.
The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Mail & Guardian.