After the inauguration of South Africa’s Government of National Unity (GNU) and President Cyril Ramaphosa, US ambassador Reuben Brigety made a noteworthy statement: “It’s not for us, or anyone else, to decide what their government should look like.
“As the government of America, we will engage with the current government and continue to work on our robust bilateral agenda, focusing on common needs like job creation, healthcare, trade and justice. We will engage with the president once he decides on the cabinet.”
Brigety’s remarks imply that the US is taking a hands-off approach, refraining from influencing South Africa’s foreign policy under the new administration, a stance that marks a departure from previous interactions.
However, the US’s historical response to South Africa’s independent, non-aligned stance on certain global issues, such as its reluctance to align with US positions on international conflicts, hinted at an eagerness for the country to lean towards its strategic agenda.
Despite this, President Joe Biden’s concise congratulatory message to Ramaphosa signalled a readiness to foster improved relations and collaborate closely with South Africa’s new government.
These reactions raise crucial questions about how the GNU will shape diplomatic relations with key international players such as the US. Will the new government adopt a foreign policy that diverges from past practices?
The transition to a GNU under Ramaphosa indicates a potential shift in how South Africa will navigate its global interactions, particularly with the US. This is especially pertinent, given the differing foreign policy philosophies of the ANC and the Democratic Alliance (DA).
How these divergent ideologies will reconcile in the context of the country’s international strategy remains a matter of significant interest and scrutiny.
Previously, South Africa’s foreign policy was characterised by a balancing act — striving to maintain good relations with diverse global powers while advocating for African unity and independence. However, maintaining this neutral stance has not been without challenges, leading to tensions, particularly with Western countries.
Recent global events have further highlighted these difficulties. South Africa’s relationship with Russia and China is a prime example of this friction. The country’s close ties with these nations, coupled with its reluctance to condemn Russia after its invasion of Ukraine, have strained relations with the US.
The decision to maintain an independent stance, rather than align with Western condemnation of Russia, has led to significant diplomatic consequences. The US, viewing South Africa’s position as a deviation from expected Western norms, has responded with various diplomatic pressures.
These have included threats to review trade ties, allegations of arms supplies to Russia and other moves aimed at pushing it to reconsider its stance.
On the other hand, the DA, part of the GNU along with the ANC, takes a different approach to global issues, often aligning more closely with the US position. For example, the DA has expressed scepticism about South Africa’s membership of Brics+, particularly criticising its strong connections with Russia and China.
The party has openly backed Ukraine in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and censured South Africa’s neutral stance. DA leader John Steenhuisen’s visit to Ukraine emphasised this position, with him stating, “It is strongly in South Africa’s interest to stand with the free world and come out hard against Russian aggression.” This highlights the DA’s desire for a foreign policy that is less confrontational toward Western interests.
The DA’s lukewarm reaction to the Gaza crisis also reflects its alignment with Western viewpoints. With the DA’s involvement in the GNU, South Africa’s foreign policy might evolve toward a more neutral approach, especially on contentious global issues.
What this means for South Africa and the US
This could mean that the US might finally have significant influence in how South Africa engages in international relations. First, it could mean that the country will take openly Western-aligned actions that could trigger friction with key trading players, such as fellow Brics members Brazil, Russia, India and China.
The US might want to take advantage of South Africa’s local dynamics to further its own agenda of frustrating its competitors, China and Russia particularly. Meaning South Africa could potentially deviate from pursuing the African agenda in international multilateral platforms such as the G20+, of which it is set to assume the chair next year, and the Brics+ group of nations.
The US is threatened by the growing influence of both China and Russia in Africa and might want to use its influence on South Africa to curb this.
The African agenda stands antithetical to Western domination and influence. Maintaining the balancing act and remaining covert in championing the African agenda will be complicated for South Africa, especially given that, although the government remains unitary, owing to the GNU, the dynamics within it have significantly changed. Thus, arriving at decisions could prove to be tedious, cumbersome and protracted.
We could see credence being given to the view that South Africa could end up as the weakest link, destabilising the Brics+ group.
What South Africa needs to do
To begin with, South Africa will have to work tactfully to pursue its collective national, regional and continental interests in global affairs. In addition, it will have to guard against the overbearing influence of the US on its national and foreign affairs policies.
More alarmingly, the country could be used as a proxy within the Brics+ group of states to destabilise and frustrate the group’s agenda — or simply go against it.
Finally, South Africa will have to assert itself robustly as it maintains relations with its key trading partners, China and Russian especially, which do not always see eye to eye with the US.
Drs Bongiwe Mphahlele and Chidochashe Nyere are researchers at the Institute for Pan-African Thought and Conversation at the University of Johannesburg.