KYIV, UKRAINE - FEBRUARY 21: (EDITOR'S NOTE: Alternative crop of image #1247356353) Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky speaks to the media during the joint press conference with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, (not pictured) on February 21, 2023 in Kyiv, Ukraine. Since her election last autumn, the Italian Prime Minister has shown consistent support for Ukraine in its war with Russia, despite tensions within the rightwing political alliance that brought her to power. (Photo by Roman Pilipey/Getty Images)
Beyond any doubt, Volodymyr Zelensky’s whirlwind “surprise” visit to three European capitals — London, Paris and Brussels — was an immensely successful trip. Despite the fact that he could not get any clear-cut pledge from his friends for “jets”, a top priority in his agenda at the moment, he returned home with a full bag.
For two key reasons, the timing of this trip was strategically poignant. First, the impending anniversary of the Russian invasion as an emotional signpost and, second, the much-awaited spring offensive by the Russians in the coming weeks — although some watchers believe that it has already started.
After a failed bid to inflict a dark and harsh winter on Ukraine, Putin is now desperate to win more territories to generate momentum for his spring offensive. The ferocious Russian attacks on Bakhmut, which has held out for months in bloody defiance against invading forces, is a part of Putin’s new war plan. He wants to use the fall of Bakhmut to prompt his dispirited forces to unleash a massive spring offensive to further annex more territories inside Ukraine to put pressure on Kyiv.
Sensing this urgency in Putin’s camp, Zelensky is making desperate attempts to galvanise and reassure the military support of Western capitals. He chose the right time to embark on his second foreign trip since the Russian intrusion.
Unlike the extremely secretive planning for his December visit to Washington, this time Zelensky’s schedule was splashed in the media a little earlier. He performed much better, in terms of impressing and motivating his audience, than what was expected of a media-savvy personality like him in his lightning tour with a hectic itinerary that included meeting with British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, addressing the British Parliament, an audience with King Charles, meetings and dinner with French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Paris and then addressing the European parliament in Brussels.
Apparently, Zelensky’s trip had two main objectives: to revitalise the moral support of Europeans at this crucial phase of the war when Moscow is almost ready to start its spring assault, and to gain commitment for more warfare and renew its request for fighter aircrafts, particularly British Typhoon jets or similar machines.
Except for some rudimentary success on the question of fighter jets, he put up a great show during his short stay in Europe. Being an astute showman himself, Zelensky, whose wartime signature attire — olive green sweatshirt, cargo pants and combat boots — has become globally recognised, intuitively evoked the pro-European sentiments during his addresses to the British and European parliaments.
Zelensky deliberately uses this outfit to remind his audience inside and outside Ukraine that they are in the presence of a wartime leader. In his speech to the European parliament, the president said Ukrainian soldiers are battling the “most anti-European force” in the world as he reiterated requests for military support in the fight against Russia, linking Ukraine’s fate to that of Europe as a whole.
“Free Europe cannot be imagined without free Ukraine,” he implored. He touched the right chords at the right time, but he could not find many sympathetic ears for his request for warplanes. It took him almost one year of intensive canvasing to get a positive nod from the Europeans and Washington for the supply of battle tanks.
His case was strong, but Nato leadership was hesitant to yield to his demand on the assumptive pretext of possible direct collision with Moscow. Now, after getting the green signal for tanks, he is pleading for fighter jets too.
Zelensky warned that supplies were running out, and without fighter jets or longer-range missiles there was a risk of “stagnation” in his country’s fight against Russia. As an emotional gesture to support his case, he presented the UK with a Ukrainian pilot’s helmet as he asked for fighter jets to be sent to combat the Russian invasion.
According to a report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), at the beginning of the conflict, Ukraine had a modest air force consisting of Soviet-era jets, estimated to be around 120 combat-capable.
Due to the ongoing war, the number of aircraft has shrunken drastically, and considering the presence of Russian aircraft and air defence systems, experts say that Ukraine possesses a limited air capacity.
Another important factor is that the battle tanks recently promised by the US, Germany and the UK will not be able to perform better unless they have reasonable air coverage. With a meagre air force, Ukraine will not be able to use these sophisticated battle machines at the optimum level. Ukraine is certainly desperate to acquire these warplanes to counter the incessant aerial attacks by the Russian air force.
But the request is not likely to find a positive response anytime soon, with a firm no from US President Joe Biden and an even firmer rejection by Scholz. Initial rejections of aid forms to Ukraine have often been reversed only after a few months of internal debates and bickering.
Sunak was also quite cautious to make any direct commitment for Typhoon jets to Ukraine and said, “nothing is off the table when it comes to assisting the war effort in Ukraine” and fighter jets “are part of the conversation”.
Sunak said Typhoon jets are “very sophisticated pieces of kit” and it could take “three years” to train a pilot to fly one. He has further pointed out the logistical handicaps and that there is a “supply chain around the aircraft”. Apart from these logistical constraints, owing to a compromised inventory at home, it would be very difficult for the UK to offer Typhoon jets to Ukraine.
Out of 130 Typhoons in the RAF, only 101 are operational. The RAF is already facing a backlog in the training of its own fast jet pilots, while maintenance and upkeep of aircraft is also cumbersome.
Apart from this numerical and technical problem, fissures are appearing within the European leadership on the question of quantum of military aid to Ukraine.
Scholtz cautioned about the ongoing race among European countries to outcompete each other on provision of military packages to Ukraine. Scholz, in an interview last week with Tagesspiegel, reasserted his refusal to countenance jets saying: “The question of combat aircraft does not arise at all. I can only advise against entering into a constant competition to outbid each other when it comes to weapons systems.”
Later on, while speaking to the Bundestag, he again reiterated his strategy saying: “We preserve and strengthen this cohesion by first preparing decisions confidentially, and only then communicating them … What harms our unity is a public competition to outdo each other along the lines of ‘battle tanks, submarines, aircraft — who is asking for more?’”
European leaders are also quite hesitant about the quantum and methodology of the support to Ukraine. The fear of direct collision with Moscow is still very much dominant. However, another reassurance for Europe is that they — and the US — have already reasonably fortified the Ukrainian air defence system by providing sophisticated surface-to-air missiles — including the recent pledge by Washington to provide the Patriot System.
Zelensky also knows this very well. The past year has taught him how to manoeuvre the simmering internal frictions among the European leaders. During this trip, Zelensky excessively pushed for the fighter jets in a hope to find some inroads as a starting point.
Eventually, he was successful in getting a promise for the training of Ukrainian pilots by the RAF. By offering to train Ukrainian pilots, Sunak has reflexively yielded to Zelensky’s request. However, Sunak has carefully framed the proposal as a part of a comprehensive plan to empower Ukraine to have control over its skies in the future. He stated, “The training will ensure that pilots will have the ability to operate advanced Nato-standard fighter jets in the future, as part of building their long-term capabilities.”
The British offer to train Ukrainian pilots on modern Nato fighter jets is a carefully couched hint to the rest of Nato that at some point it may have to provide modern jets to help Ukraine defend its airspace from the Russian air force.
So, Zelensky, a comedian-turned-politician-turned-war-campaigner, has been able to find a link for his desired fighter jets. Still, a lot depends upon how the Ukraine war unfolds in the next two months.
The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Mail & Guardian.