The mining industry has the potential to grow if there is more investment in exploration projects. (Michele Spatari/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
Three macro trends are converging simultaneously in the African mining sector, creating opportunities for mining operators, governments and the general population alike.
These trends include the West’s growing interest in Africa’s mining resources — aimed at matching the strides made by Eastern competitors led by China — the just energy transition, and the ever-growing influence of the agreement establishing the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).
The interaction of these trends creates new complexities for operators and governments to navigate, yet the benefits of shared investment and economic growth on the continent are expected to outweigh the challenges posed by such complexities.
The key challenge facing the continent’s political leaders is whether the right environment can be created to capitalise on what may be a generational opportunity to reset the African structure of economies in a manner that fosters industrial development and maximises the benefits accruing to the citizens.
Western nations seek to close the gap with China in Africa
Geopolitics and financing play important roles in influencing the behaviour of key actors in the global mining industry. China’s rapid economic growth was a major driver of the global commodity boom of the early 2000s. Although demand for commodities has fluctuated since then, China has continued to strengthen its strategic positioning in key mining jurisdictions on the continent, such as Zambia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Zimbabwe and Namibia.
For example, in 2022, China owned 72% of all cobalt and copper mines in the DRC, with Chinese mining and battery companies investing about $4.5 billion in lithium mines over the recent years, including in Namibia and Zimbabwe. Recognising the gap that exists between themselves and the East, Western nations and companies are increasingly competing as a source of investment or finance for operators on the continent as the race for rare earth metal intensifies.
Given the ongoing geopolitical tensions since the entry of Donald Trump into the political stage in 2017 and the evolving political dynamics in Europe, competition for African battery minerals between East and West is likely to increase. Underpinning these manoeuvres worldwide, and the heightened status of the DRC and Zambia in the global mining sector, is the energy transition from fossil fuels to green energy.
Key metals, electric vehicles, and policy stability
China correctly identified early on that copper, lithium, nickel and cobalt would be the commodities crucial to the future development of battery and computing technology. The country’s dominance of the electric vehicle (EV) space for example is in part a result of its preponderant access to these key resources. Production of EV batteries requires cobalt, nickel and lithium, and the creation of large batteries needed to store the energy generated by solar and wind power likewise requires these minerals.
Based on conversations with operators in the sector, mining investors are not just paying attention to where minerals are located in Africa, but also to the policy environment in the countries housing these resources.
Investors have continued to invest in these countries because of the quality of the deposits located there (for instance, the DRC), but Namibia and Zambia have garnered greater attention partly because of their political stability, policy predictability and lower levels of corruption according to Amnesty International.
A further influence on the behaviour of African governments is that they no longer want to house the extraction and export of commodities. Recognising the crucial role rare earth metals play in the transition from fossil fuels, there is growing sentiment across the continent that Africa’s economies must go beyond that of a supplier of materials and evolve into a participant in the value chains of the future. The AfCFTA is fundamental to changing that narrative.
The AfCFTA agreement and localisation
The objectives underpinning the AfCFTA extend beyond mere intra-African trade. It addresses a broad milieu of other factors such as trade, including logistics and energy infrastructure. It also seeks to ensure predictability at borders to facilitate the movement of goods from one market to another. Crucially it also emphasises localisation.
Most mining equipment used in Africa is not manufactured in the continent, with a significant portion being imported, particularly from China. The continent’s inability to manufacture its own mining equipment, with a few exceptions, represents a missed opportunity for job creation, skills transfer, and locally driven manufacturing.
When a miner purchases Chinese machinery, the manufacturer often sends a team from China to maintain and, depending on the task, operate the machine. This creates a skills dependency that can only be fulfilled by the manufacturers themselves. Western miners followed the same playbook in the past. From an environmental, social and corporate governance perspective, such practices represent a missed opportunity.
An example of how the AfCFTA can drive trade and economic beneficiation, driven by the finance of Western and Eastern investors, is the rules of origin. In simple terms, goods or parts manufactured on the continent receive preferential tariffs when moved across borders to markets in Africa, as well as to the United States and the European Union.
As a result, Eastern and Western investors have a greater incentive to establish manufacturing facilities on the continent, which provides an opportunity to use local commodities as inputs for these goods.
If localisation can be achieved at scale across the continent, new supply chains, subsidiary economies and manufacturing bases can develop which can drive economic growth across countries, benefiting local residents. Getting there requires governments and operators to recognise the opportunities created by the AfCFTA and foster an enabling policy and regulatory environment.
It is in the interest of the mining countries to consider what it would take to establish mineral trading platforms on the African continent. The design of such platforms should ensure that a significant portion of revenue from trade conducted on such platforms remains on the continent to support the economic development and value-addition on battery and other minerals.
By leveraging the opportunities presented by the West’s growing interest in Africa’s resources, fostering localisation through the AfCFTA and embracing innovation, African governments and operators can not only navigate the complexities of these trends but also position the continent as a global leader in the value chain for critical minerals.
The steps taken today to build resilient and inclusive economies will shape the mining sector’s ability to thrive in a dynamic and competitive global landscape for generations to come.
Jonathan Veeran, Meluleki Nzimande & Tobia Serongoane are at Webber Wentzel.