Undermining: Communities that rely on fossil fuels for their livelihoods must be taken into consideration in the transition to cleaner energy. Photo: Delwyn Verasamy
South Africa’s nationwide electricity blackouts have been suspended, but the nation still faces a “risk of another energy crisis”, the 2025 Energy Market Projections report notes, making the necessity of an energy transition indisputable.
But, for the transition to be fair and effective, it must be anchored in strategies that prioritise equity and inclusion. Without this foundation, inequalities and the marginalisation of vulnerable groups, such as those who rely on fossil fuel industries and infrastructure for their livelihoods, will intensify.
Through the implementation of several national frameworks and strategic plans to execute the shift, South Africa’s commitment to a just transition is evident, but the real challenge is ensuring it lives up to the promise not only of energy security but also of justice.
The $475 million loan from the African Development Bank to support South Africa’s green transformation confirms a reality we know all too well — the country faces seemingly endless energy problems that require urgent attention.
Examples include a poorly maintained and ageing coal-fired power station fleet; a monopolised, mismanaged energy supplier (Eskom) and dependence on a single energy commodity — coal. This dependence leads to higher susceptibility to supply disruptions and, consequently, reduced energy security.
Eskom was a primary site through which “state capture” was executed, further undermining justice in energy reliability, access and affordability.
These issues underscore the importance of prioritising a shift toward more sustainable and decentralised energy sources — a vital component in addressing the energy crisis.
Based on the Just Transition Framework’s definition of the term “just transition”, the concept encompasses two elements. First, a shift towards low-carbon energy sources. Second, ensuring fairness and equity throughout this shift, safeguarding the livelihoods of those reliant on carbon-intensive industries.
The Just Transition Framework is a strategic plan to guide the transition’s actions and desired outcomes and affirms the commitment to inclusion and equity.
It states among the goals “decent work for all, social inclusion, and the eradication of poverty”. Across the initiatives carried out thus far, such as the Just Transition Framework and Implementation Plan, the significance placed on socio-economic considerations is encouraging.
But acknowledgement is just the starting point and actualising these considerations demands more than mere words.
There are considerable disparities in the extent to which social equity measures are integrated into provincial and city-level transition plans.
In the findings of a research report by SouthSouthNorth and Net Zero Tracker it emerged that only the Western Cape and Johannesburg have extensive “just” transition considerations in place to support communities during the shift. These considerations mainly refer to social justice factors and principles: equity, fairness and access.
The majority of the country is still behind in establishing strategies that realise the core principle of the just energy transition — that “no one is left behind”.
The lack of comprehensive social equity strategies in the provinces for the transition is alarming. Most vulnerable are regions reliant on coal, which accounts for more than 80% of our energy supply. Beyond the harm to the natural environment, dependence on this fossil fuel is a concern because it amplifies the potential adverse effects associated with the decarbonisation process.
Examples include loss of livelihoods, job redundancy, a skills mismatch post transition, compromised energy security and potential economic devastation for coal-reliant communities. These are likely to affect, to varying degrees, any country undergoing a shift to green energy but, given South Africa’s dependence on coal both for export revenue and generating electricity, mitigating these negative effects becomes proportionally greater.
Although there are considerable risks associated with the transition, this does not negate the need to shift to greener energy sources and should not be used to oppose the transition.
Hypothetically, if we persist with our current energy system, remaining a fossil-fuel-dependent country will have considerably worse socio-economic implications than those of the just energy transition. Indeed, the hidden costs of coal are significant.
Drawing from insights in The Oxford Handbook of the South African Economy, the main reasons the country requires this energy transition are environmental concerns (the need to meet our climate target commitments, such as the Paris Agreement and the Low-Emission Development Strategy 2050, and our high vulnerability to the effects of climate change), ageing power plant infrastructure and systems that struggle to meet demands.
It is thus clear that the most sustainable and prudent move is to proceed with the transition. With the compelling argument that the transition is inevitable, it becomes even more important to reinforce that it should be carried out justly.
But at the provincial level, there is a severe lack of robust “just” strategies and measures in transition plans. This means vulnerable people, such as those who rely on fossil fuel industries and infrastructure for their livelihoods, do not have a support structure during and post transition.
The question policymakers ought to consider is, how can we effectively actualise the “just” element — prioritising inclusion and equity — of the energy transition in the immediate, intermediate and longer term?
National frameworks such as the Just Energy Transition Framework, the Just Transition Investment Plan and the Implementation Plan include moderately comprehensive “just” principles, considerations and measures. The issue is many provincial and city-level plans do not have the same scope as national frameworks.
There are also clear inconsistencies and a lack of nationwide alignment in relation to the development and implementation of transition plans that are “just”. Some provinces have comprehensive plans in place; others have minimal to none.
Moreover, there are intra-provincial discrepancies — meaning that urban centres (such as Johannesburg and Cape Town) in a province often exhibit more robust transition efforts than the province where they are situated. This nationwide misalignment is a major obstacle to overcome in ensuring that no one is left behind during the transition process.
The importance of taking a people-centred, bottom-up approach in all stages of the transition cannot be overstated. Community consultation and participation ensures the needs and interests of stakeholders are incorporated into policy. The result of this is two-fold: it reinforces the principle of nobody being left behind and strengthens grassroot-level support and trust in the transition.
As stated by Narend Singh, the deputy minister of forestry, fisheries and the environment, “It is essential that we approach this transition with humanity, providing support, training and creating new opportunities within the renewable energy sector.”
Interventions that foster inclusion are reskilling and training initiatives as well as targeted social protection programmes. Actualising these is a fundamental step in translating the “just” dimension of the energy transition into practical implementation.
To ensure the transition aligns with its intended purpose, it ought to have a strong foundation rooted in concrete and consistent support strategies, as well as inclusion and equitable access to transition benefits. Ignoring these fundamentals risks intensifying socio-economic inequalities.
Ultimately, the “just” aspect of the just energy transition is both a practical necessity and a moral imperative for building South Africa’s sustainable future.
Sisanda Lupondwana is a research intern in the Natural Resource Governance and Climate Change programme at Good Governance Africa.