In the running: Yoweri Museveni, Africa’s fourth-longest serving president, is seeking re-election under the slogan ‘Protecting Our Gains’. Photo: X
Thirty-nine years and counting, Uganda’s President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni has sought re-election to the country’s top seat for the seventh time, sparking debate on whether Ugandans will see meaningful political and economic change.
Bangirana Ismael, a National Resistance Movement supporter attending Museveni’s nomination celebration, voiced a common complaint: “We are earning less and spending more.
“We just want Museveni to create more jobs, so our earnings match the standard of living.”
Last year’s Uganda National Population and Housing Census indicates 33% of Ugandan households are still outside the money economy, with the majority involved in subsistence farming — for food rather than commercial purposes.
Legislator Wilson Kajwengye of the ruling National Resistance Movement party (NRM) says “the intention of the NRM is to shift that”.
Kajwengye says the government policy of the Parish development model will “uplift more Ugandans into the money economy and reduce that percentage drastically”.
The confident Kajwengye says Museveni’s seventh bid for the presidency “assures Ugandans of continuity, stability and steady growth”.
He says the NRM has progressive policies which will grow the economy tenfold, expressing hope that by 2026-27, “we are going to hopefully have our oil money coming on board”.
Uganda has about 6.5 billion barrels of oil, of which 1.4 billion barrels are estimated as recoverable. Production is expected to start in June, with the construction of the East African Crude Oil Pipeline and central processing facilities completed.
After his nomination in Kampala, Museveni, wearing a yellow shirt and blue pants with his iconic grey bucket hat, outlined a “double mission” for his next term. “There’s peace in the country, but there’s some crime, corruption, and impunity. The NRM structure should come out and help expose criminals,” he said.
Africa’s fourth-longest serving president is seeking re-election under the slogan “Protecting Our Gains”.
Museveni emphasised that his government needs to tackle corruption, impunity and criminality to help everyday Ugandans benefit from the country’s transformation.
Emmanuel Dombo, director of information for the NRM, concurs with Museveni, saying his long tenure has brought peace and stability, fostering national pride.
“That pride in stability forms a foundation for decisions about whether to return or not return President Museveni,” Dombo noted.
In contrast, governance expert Job Kijja is dismayed by Museveni’s candidacy. “It’s nostalgic because we know the result is already determined,” he said, adding, “We need to stop wasting time and taxpayers’ money.”
Just a week before the presidential nominations, Uganda’s Minister for Justice and Constitutional Affairs, Norbert Mao, also president of the Democratic Party, voiced the opinion that Uganda’s transition would happen through an election.
Mao said power transition is occurring “in the rooms that matter”, rather than at the ballot box, dismissing opposition parties like Bobi Wine’s National Unity Platform (NUP), as “regime change fundamentalists”, unfit to be trusted with power. “Power is not for everyone,” Mao said.
Political analyst Mary Anne Nanfuka suggests Ugandans are poised to witness a behind-the-scenes power struggle. Citing defence force chief Muhoozi Kainerugaba (Museveni’s son) and parliament speaker Anita Among, Nanfuka states, “Museveni pushed out reasonable people and concentrated power in himself and his minions, leaving Ugandans stuck.” She describes these officials as “opportunistic, not very brilliant, persons with power”.
As President Museveni’s abilities are tested by his age — 81 — Nanfuka notes Uganda lacks functional systems to steer the country, if a crisis should befall the presidency.
“The power struggle won’t leave this country intact,” she says. “Change is change, and if President Museveni is gone, we’ll figure it out.”
The NRM has vowed to win next year’s elections with 90% support due to its “overwhelming backing”.
Emmanuel Dombo argues that Museveni is the obvious choice because of systems serving ordinary Ugandans, despite inadequacies.
He acknowledges underfunding in public health, attributing it to Uganda’s poverty: “Because we’re a poor country, you debate how to share little resources. Priorities aren’t always set right, dispersing limited funds with less impact. The little is dispersed in such a manner that the impact may be less.”
Kijja disagrees, saying Uganda has overly commercialised its politics, so that “the ordinary man knows that the closest they probably will get towards the national cake is by going to a rally and getting a handout of 5 000 shillings, ($1.43) soap, salt and matchboxes”.
Dismissing any suggestion there has been an improvement in service delivery, Kijja says Ugandans have “seen that every election that passes there’s nothing much they get”.
“What we see, actually, is that the politicians go to parliament and the first thing they do is increase their salaries and pass bills that the president is interested in.”
Critics worry about election violence and human rights abuses like those in Uganda’s 2021 elections, which Human Rights Watch described as unjustifiable and excessive.
Meant to be an exercise in democracy, Uganda’s 2021 election period turned into a bloodbath. It saw deaths, kidnappings and abductions; some remain missing.
Families have demanded accountability through the NUP to no avail; instead, these acts continue.
General Muhoozi Kainerugaba boasted on X about abducting and torturing NUP supporters.
Regarding missing NUP bodyguard Edward Ssebufu, Muhoozi tweeted, “He’s in my basement. Learning Runyankore [a local dialect]. You — Bobi Wine — are next!”
Another tweet read, “I captured NUP’s military commander like a grasshopper. If they provoke us, we shall discipline them even more.”
Kijja observed that, in the four decades of the NRM regime, elections have been getting worse. The associate director at Innovations for Democratic Engagement and Action says they have carried out studies on election violence and, “We can confirm that every election always inherits episodes of violence from the past election. The violence is never resolved.”
Kijja insists, “This is happening because, for Museveni, an election is a do or die to remain in power.”
He says the heavy military deployment on the streets during campaigning and elections sends a chilling message down the spines of citizens, instead of encouraging them to participate.
“They’ll actually shy away. They hear people being abducted. They are seeing people being tortured. Who would turn up and participate in an election when that is the kind of election that you are presiding over?”
Dombo counters, “Government arrests. And the people who have been arrested have been arraigned before the courts of law. Why do you call it an abduction?”
He views reports of abduction as an opposition conspiracy.
“Governments have coercive instruments to subdue disorder and create public order,” Dombo says.
Wilson termed cases of people being tortured before appearing in court as “unfortunate”.
He says, “A state must guard against that thuggery, irrespective of whether you support the NRM or opposition.”
While supporters of the NRM look to January to participate in the elections, critics fear it will have the lowest turn out of voters ever.
In April this year, the NRM announced it had 19.8 million registered voters. This is almost a million less than registered voters recorded by the National Electoral Commission.
Kijja says these inconsistencies are a clear indication the exercise won’t be credible. “Whether we vote or not, it’s going to be the same result, because so many Ugandans have lost faith in elections in this country.”
The campaign season starts next month but Ugandans will have to wait until 12 January to choose from eight candidates vying for the presidency, including one familiar face they’ve seen in the last six elections.
With no woman contender on the list, those vying for the presidency include Robert Kyagulanyi popularly known as Bobi Wine (NUP), Nathan Nandala Mafabi (Forum for Democratic Change), Mugisha Muntu Gregory (Alliance for National Transformation and Mubaraka Munyagwa (Common Man’s Party).