Mosotho Moepya, chairperson of IEC South Africa, addressing media at the national results centre in Midrand. Photo: Delwyn Verasamy
South African Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) chairperson Mosotho Moepya’s call to his Indian counterpart ahead of the Bihar polls, an exercise involving 75 million voters, quietly signalled how pivotal the next SA election will be for the survival of its democracy.
South Africa is a young democracy, and its elections were reported as largely free and fair.
Several local democratic civil society organisations, along with international observers from the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the African Union (AU), monitored the last general election held in May 2024.
Enock Kavindele, Head of the SADC Electoral Observation Mission, noted that South Africa’s 2024 National and Provincial Elections were “professionally organised and conducted in an orderly, peaceful, and free atmosphere, allowing voters to express their democratic will”.
The AU later described the polls as having taken place in a “peaceful” environment.
Since the ANC lost its parliamentary majority, a Government of National Unity (GNU) was formed, a broad coalition comprising 10 political parties including the Democratic Alliance, Inkatha Freedom Party, Patriotic Alliance and others.
Thus, a healthy and transparent electoral process will be one of the most vital issues for South Africa, a country that upholds the rule of law and freedom of speech in a continent where few nations enjoy the same democratic privilege.
South Africa should draw lessons from regional and global elections that have undermined or destroyed democracies.
The election in Tanzania shocked many after the country’s first female president, Samia Suluhu Hassan, who appeared in military uniform, declared victory with 98 percent of the vote in the October 29 election.
Hassan, who took office in 2021 following the death of authoritarian leader John Magufuli, had previously been known as a soft-spoken and gentle leader.
Post-election violence, the worst in decades, claimed thousands of lives while the opposition was silenced and the country’s atmosphere of peace and stability was shattered.
Amnesty International reported that Tanzania’s instability poses a risk to East Africa since thousands of Tanzanian protesters lost their lives and many expatriate Kenyan teachers, investors, engineers, students and health workers were injured in the election violence.
SADC, the East African Community, the African Union and the European Union observer missions rejected Samia Hassan’s allegation that foreigners, particularly Kenyans, are responsible for the election violence. These bodies reported that Tanzanian elections were neither free nor fair.
Another suspicious election was Cameroon’s one.
The presidential election held in Cameroon on 12 October, which once again returned 92-year-old Paul Biya to power after ruling since 1982, is a stark illustration of how the country’s future has been effectively placed under long-term political foreclosure.
Unlike its neighbour Nigeria, which broadcasts polling results in real time, Cameroon still releases election outcomes through outdated and opaque methods.
The election-management body, ELECAM, has also failed to renew or reform itself, reinforcing public distrust in the electoral system. The Constitutional Council’s decision to disqualify Maurice Kamto, a 71-year-old opposition leader with strong nationwide support, further undermined the credibility of the process.
In a country where the median age is barely 19, such an uncompetitive and unfair system not only denies younger generations meaningful political change but also threatens the wider stability of Central Africa.
As a pivotal state in the region, any internal instability in Cameroon would have serious consequences for its already fragile neighbours, including the Central African Republic, Congo-Brazzaville, Equatorial Guinea and Gabon.
If there is an example where unhealthy elections have destroyed democracy and the rule of law, it is Türkiye, a country once known for its so-called “ballot-box democracy.” In Türkiye’s context, this concept does not necessarily mean that only elections take place while other institutions fail to function or that there is no rule of law.
Rather, it reflects a political culture in which voter participation is remarkably high and citizens vote consciously to punish governments that do not govern well.Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in power since 2003, has been accused of manipulating elections.
After his party lost its parliamentary majority in the June 2015 general election, he called for a repeat election in November 2015. Similarly, following his party’s loss in the 2019 Istanbul mayoral election, the results were initially challenged and a rerun was held in June 2019, a repeat of the March 2019 vote.
Forensic analyses of Türkiye’s 2017, 2018, and 2023 elections suggest that extreme vote swings in remote areas may indicate significant election malpractices, including ballot stuffing and voter manipulation US President Donald Trump, during a meeting at the Oval Office in September on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, remarked that “Erdogan knows more about rigged elections than anyone”.
“This election rigging since 2015 has cost Türkiye greatly as Freedom House’s Freedom in the World 2024 report classifies Türkiye as “Not Free.” OSCE reports that Turkish elections have not been free and fair.
While the recent elections in Tanzania, Cameroon and Türkiye serve as cautionary examples for South Africa, India’s latest election offers a positive model for Pretoria
to follow.
Bihar’s Legislative Assembly elections concluded with a historic voter turnout of 66.91 percent, the highest recorded in the state since 1951, with male turnout at 62.8 percent and female turnout at an impressive 71.6 percent.
For the first time, 16 delegates from six countries, South Africa, Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines, Belgium and Colombia, participated in the International Election Visitors’ Programme and praised the polls as among the world’s most well-organised, transparent, efficient and participatory.
The Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) has announced that South Africa’s local government elections will take place between 2 November 2026 and the end of January 2027, and the country will then head toward its next general election in 2029.
Elections form the foundation of democratic governance and reflect the strength and integrity of all state institutions.
These upcoming municipal and national polls will represent a decisive turning point for South Africa’s democracy.
Their credibility and competitiveness will not only determine the functionality and resilience of South Africa’s institutions but also carry profound significance for the stability and democratic trajectory of the entire SADC region and the continent.
Türkmen Terzi is a foreign journalist based in South Africa, representing TR724, a Turkish online newspaper. He regularly comments on international politics across various media platforms. Terzi is also pursuing his PhD at the University of Johannesburg