On the northern side of Auckland Harbour bridge the wind is blowing, rapping Takapuna hard beneath a clear sky. In their hotel, Spencer on Byron, France are about to tell the world how they are dealing with what might be called “The Irish Consequence”.
It is a sensitive issue. This time last week France might have been bracing themselves to give this Saturday’s game against the All Blacks a real blast, in a genuine attempt to top Pool A and play the runners-up of England’s Pool B in the quarter-final.
To play either Scotland or Argentina is not without appeal, but Ireland’s victory over Australia has reshuffled the quarter-final deck elsewhere. And the pathway for France if they lose to New Zealand looks more appetising than the road through victory. The runners-up of Pool A will play the winners of Pool B, presumably England, but not yet the England that have made it their custom to knock France out of the World Cup.
And in the semi-final, should the trend of 1991, 2003 and 2007 be broken, France would play the winners of quarter-final one, between, should neither blow a gasket, Ireland and Wales. So, instead of New Zealand-France at Eden Park being a crunch game, it now gives France the chance to play “décomplexé, sans pression“, according to their coach, Marc Lièvremont.
He responded the day before to the suggestion that France might happily lose against the All Blacks by saying that it would be extremely dangerous ever to contemplate such a thing. It would be a recipe for being severely punished on the field by a team like New Zealand.
Now we know how seriously he means this. Fourteen of the starting 15 underline a determination to be entirely true to his word. He cannot pick his first-choice front row because of injury to the prop Nicolas Mas, and the need to manage the knee of the hooker, William Servat, but there is no such thing as a flimsy French front row, and Luc Ducalcon, Dimitri Szarzewski and Jean-Baptiste Poux are anything but.
Pascal Papé, with Lionel Nallet in the second row, is a strong combination, and the inclusion of Julien Bonnaire, one of Lièvremont’s favourite players, boosts the line-out options and makes for a well-balanced back row, alongside Thierry Dusautoir and Louis Picamoles.
Dimitri Yachvili is in fine form at scrumhalf and a fit Maxime Mermoz is always going to be in the team. Maxime Médard, despite being a bit underworked in the two victories over Japan and Canada, and Vincent Clerc, a bit wobbly under a few high balls in those games, are dangerous, and Damien Traille is an enormous presence at fullback.
Which just leaves the one position, the flyhalf who will have to play against the master of the most demanding position on the rugby field, Dan Carter. And here there is a gasp. At ouvreur is Morgan Parra, feisty, talented, multi-skilled, but, above all, a scrumhalf.
It is true that Parra played a bit at No 10 when he was at Bourgoin, but at his current club, Clermont-Auvergne, he is exclusively a No 9. It is equally true that in the opening games he came on and played cameo roles in the outside-half position, against Japan when David Skrela was injured, and against Canada, when François Trinh-Duc was hauled off.
This is part one of the problem for Lièvremont. Trinh-Duc has long been his signature selection, his playmaker from Montpellier, nurtured by the coach since 2008. When on form Trinh-Duc is robust and full of daring. He has been hesitant in New Zealand and has been replaced in both games. To drop him is, says Lièvremont, to challenge him, put his powers of resilience to the test.
That is the easy part. More difficult is replacing him. Skrela came on for Trinh-Duc against Japan, only to damage his shoulder 11 minutes later, and is out of the tournament. His replacement, Jean-Marc Doussaint, has only just stepped off the plane.
Step forward Parra, fresh from hearing the news, full of enthusiasm and aware that he can go out there and enjoy himself because nothing is expected of him. He will even be spared the place-kicking duties, although he says that he and Yachvili, statistically the most successful kickers at the World Cup, may make the final decision on the day.
From enjoying a cameo to facing Carter is a giant step. It is a risk. But it is also a selection that may allow France to lose with face saved.
If France go to the knock-out stages as runners-up in Pool A, down the Six Nations route in the last eight, it is a safe bet that Morgan Parra will not be picked at outside-half when they meet the All Blacks again, in the final. —