/ 21 March 2001

Is that a light, or an oncoming train?

OWN CORRESPONDENTS, Pretoria | Wednesday

ONE in every nine South Africans – about 4.7 million people – was infected with HIV by the end of 2000, but the infection rate is slowing, according to a new government study.

“The survey indicated that to a large extent we are in control. We can indeed say there is a ray of hope,” Health Minister Manto Tshabalala-Msimang said. “We’re on top of issues. We’re getting there.”

Tshabalala-Msimang said the increase to 4.7 million last year was not “alarming at all,” noting that the statistics had stabilised over the last three years compared with steep rises recorded in the early and mid-1990s.

However, some researchers estimate that more than five million South Africans are HIV-positive. The United Nations estimates that the epidemic may cut gross domestic product (GDP) by 17% by the end of the decade and wipe $22bn off the national economy.

Tshabalala-Msimang says the latest HIV infection figure is based on a survey of more than 400 antenatal clinics nationwide.

Particularly encouraging was a drop in HIV infection rates among teenagers sampled, she said. The rate of infection among teenagers went down from 21% in 1998 to 16.1% in 2000.

However, Tshabalala-Msimang noted a worrying trend among women in their early twenties, the group with the highest prevalence of HIV infection.

Since 1999, the infection rate for women aged 20 to 24 has increased from 25.6 to 29.1%, and for those from 25 to 29 it rose from 26.4 to 30.6%.

The report said the rising infection rate among women in their twenties raised social and economic concerns as it “impacts on maternal care and child survival.”

The survey revealed that about 24.5% of pregnant women attending public antenatal clinics were infected with HIV by the end of last year. In 1999, 22.4% of pregnant women tested positive for HIV, while the figure in 1998 was 22.8%.

The figures in the report showed that eastern KwaZulu-Natal has the highest incidence of HIV infection in the country at 36.2%, followed by Mpumalanga and Gauteng, both in the north of the country, with 29.7 and 29.4% respectively. – AFP

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