Philippa Garson looks into some possible scenarios for higher education in South Africa
THOSE who encountered the 1990 Mont Fleur scenarios, symbolic representations of the country’s possible futures on the pinnacle of its transition, can probably remember the too-much-too-soon Icarus, the hamstrung lame duck, the head-in-the-sand ostrich and the soaring flamingos. With the exception of the flamingos, representing a harmonious government able to balance the demands of its constituencies, the symbols illustrated in a graphic and memorable way the potential pitfalls for a government of national unity.
Now, the public-sector based Eastern Seaboard Association of Tertiary Institutions (Esati) has published a similar set of four scenarios for the future of higher education using traffic as the metaphor.
Esati predicts that “South Africa will become one of the most scenario-literate countries in the world”. “Up until recently, ‘government arrogance’ has prevailed, with governments assuming that what is wanted, will happen. Now they are accepting the fact that things happen to you, without plan,” commented Esati secretary Jonathan Gunthorpe.
As its starting point for higher education, the scenario team drew up a checklist of the “good” and “bad” in our tertiary system at present: the “bad” being an overloaded, underfunded system with unfair competition and admissions policies, a shortage of bursaries and loans, a lack of confidence in qualifications and inadequate teacher support. And the “good” being the tertiary system’s enormous potential to take advantage of the regional distribution of technikons and universities, make the most of existing resources, expand distance education and co-operation between institutions, strengthen progressive initiatives such as alternative admissions policies, academic development programmes, partnerships and student support and utilise the wealth of teaching skills that already exists.
Cautioning that “scenarios are not about options but possible futures within which we create options”, the team identified key unpredictables which will impact on the future: whether tertiary education is “crisis managed” or “change managed” and if it’s change managed, how so?
* In the “traffic jam” scenario, the crisis-management continues: affirmative action and the student funding crisis are not addressed and tertiary institutions are sites of violence and instability. Despite soaring student expectations, the government can’t or won’t intervene in any real way and Reconstruction and Development Programme resources are taken up elsewhere. Institutions battle through the jam on their own, looking to their own survival in a way that renders the system incoherant, riddled with duplication and competition and utterly divided along regional lines, between historically white and historically black institutions, between universities and technikons and between distance education and residential education.
Privileged institutions fight to keep their status, and in the absence of any planning, too many students continue to pour into the humanities and social sciences, exiting with useless degrees and adding to the queue of unemployed graduates. Declining subsidies demand ongoing rationalisation and staff are as a result “burnt-out, insecure and depressed.”
Lacking confidence in the system, business sets up its own training institutions that attract the best graduates, leading to the further deterioration in the value of degrees. With universities and technikons managing to keep out of the National Qualifications Framework “their degrees are increasingly up for question and there is “growing tension between institutions over equivalence and transferability”.
In this scenario, symptoms and not causes are addressed and even within individual institutions, ongoing crises prevent any long-term planning.
* In the airlines scenario, a relatively orderly business culture prevails — with occasional crashes and bankruptcies — with the state intervening as little as possible, phasing out subsidies and allowing tertiary education to be shaped by the market. The image is one of students as customers, choosing from a range of economically graded airlines (institutions) and fares (services).
The curriculum is focused and modularised and institutions forge close links with economic sectors. A new Education Act allows for private institutions to be established. They then mushroom, forcing some of the older public institutions to close down, and creating an elitist system. The NQF ties in with the customer- based approach and the emphasis is on quality delivery. Tax incentives encourage private sector support of the tertiary system, which in turn makes huge grants available for contract research projects, but causes economically unviable departments to close down.
* The fleet management scenario arises from open learning partnerships and successful negotiations between all stakeholders. It is directly opposite to the “traffic jam” scenario, with an image of highly managed customers (students) getting to where they want to be. State-funded provincial councils lead to “a holistic regional approach to delivery” and less resistance to rationalisation. Regional access colleges give disadvantaged students access to tertiary institutions, which all recognise and accredit prior learning and offer modular courses with multiple entry and exit points. Thus, higher education is effectively integrated into the NQF and flexible, life-long learning is encouraged. The system is characterised by innovation, distance education, high technology and skills-based outputs. Problems around finance and affirmative action policies for staff prevail.
* In the railway system scenario (the opposite of the airlines scenario), tertiary education is reshaped according to the government’s RDP priorities. The system is tightly controlled by government which gives subsidies to those institutions offering career-based education relevant to the needs of the country and adopting redress policies for staff and students. “All funding is linked to the achievement of specified national and institutional goals,” in a learner-centred system. Institutions resenting their loss of autonomy seek private funding and become elite, private institutions. Others must rationalise to survive.