Philippa Garson
MASSIVE security force deployment, recent peace initiatives and a desire to get local elections over with have contributed to a significant decline in violence in KwaZulu-Natal in recent weeks.
Although more than 50 people have died in the province so far this month, and intimidation and tension are still widespread, peace monitors report a drop in violence in recent weeks.
In the three months preceding the 1994 elections, over 500 people were killed, but in the last three months, fewer than 200 people have died in the province, reports the Human Rights Committee.
Yet no fewer than 14 election candidates have been killed and monitors cite several flashpoint areas where the potential for conflict is high, particularly if election results are contested or if the extra security force personnel withdraw too soon.
Monitors attribute the decrease in violence primarily to the presence of almost 30 000 security force members, recent high-profile peace initiatives on the part of church groups and politicians, and the fact that elections — which have been postponed twice — simply had to go ahead this time.
“The postponement of elections twice has sent a clear message that violence simply has to stop or the bottom line is — no elections,” said Network of Independent Monitors co-ordinator Jenni Irish.
Irish said her organisation had received many reports of intimidation and people were expressing fears about the possibility of violence, but “the security situation is much quieter than expected”. She attributed this in part to the highly visible policing of the security forces.
Roadblocks, ongoing weapon searches of hostels in the Durban area (which have all been searched this month) and mobile, quick reaction units were helping to contain violence, she said.
Peace Committee director Dennis Nkosi said the “winds of change” were beginning to waft through the province, with the many peace intitiatives — and a particularly effective Radio Zulu campaign — now merging into a concerted drive on most people’s part. “People are really getting sick and tired of the violence. For the first time in its history the KwaZulu-Natal Parliament is conducting its affairs in a more reconciliatory fashion. There is less of the usual arguing,” said Nkosi.
Ongoing development initiatives, such as the electrification measures in the volatile Bambayi area, were helping to bring about peace, he said. “The local government elections are not about peace but about the delivery of services which people have been yearning for.”
Monitors also attributed the decline in violence to the ongoing police and special task force investigations into hit squad activities and massacres, and successful prosecutions in some instances, which were deterring the actions of instigators.
But some cautioned that a drop in violence does not amount to free and fair elections. “There is no peace — a low-intensity civil war continues. Under these circumstances it is unrealistic to expect that these elections, especially in rural areas, will reflect the real will of the voters,” commented violence monitor Mary de Haas.
Attacks on candidates, heightened tension and the existence of “no-go” areas like Izingolweni and Richmond militated against free elections, said De Haas, adding however that “death and destruction would probably be far greater” without additional army and police forces.
“In spite of the heavy security force presence now, the damage has already been done, as thousands have fled the areas in which they should be voting, and thousands of others have been threatened with retaliation in the future if they do not join political parties and/or pay monies for arms and ammunition, for the upkeep of the local warlord.”