The pundits overseas favour Rome, but there is a strong argument for South Africa being the favourites to win the race for the 2004 Olympics, writes Julian Drew
THE 11 candidates for the 2004 Olympic Games have only travelled three weeks along the 21-month obstacle course that will culminate in the awarding of the Games of the XXVIII Olympiad next September, but already those in the know in Europe are tipping Rome as the favourite. The bid is big news around the world and there will be countless column inches devoted to it between now and the declaration of the host city by International Olympic Committee (IOC) president, Juan Antonio Samaranch. These will offer a myriad of different theories about one city’s chances are better, or worse, than another’s –some of it parochial propaganda, some of it pie in the sky and much of it a plausible attempt to unravel the meaning behind an extremely complex process that produces as fierce and emotional a competition as the quest for Olympic glory
This process is presided over by the IOC, one of the most secretive and certainly one of the most exclusive groups of people in the world, whose actions have received intense scrutiny and been the object of considerable debate, much of it scurrilous innuendo. But whatever is said and whatever the unfathomable workings of the IOC, there can be no doubt that come September 1997 Cape Town will be the sentimental favourite to carry off the big prize. It is probably true to say that Rome, Stockholm, Cape Town and either Rio de Janeiro or Buenos Aires are the front-runners in the race, but some of the factors being forwarded as favouring Rome are questionable. With this year’s Olympics taking place in Atlanta, and those of 2000 due for Sydney, the assumption is that Europe will thus have prior claim to the next Olympics. Certainly the Games have never been away from Europe for more than two Olympiads, but this is an entirely different world to what it was even 10 years ago. The guaranteed revenues generated by television sales, which have already been signed up until 2008 for America, and a finely tuned international sponsorship programme, means that the Games are economically viable just about anywhere in the world. And, no matter where they are in the global village, the whole world can consume them via television. The IOC is also ever more mindful that the Games belong to the whole world and as such will be keen to see that they visit places like Africa, South America and China. It is quite conceivable in this environment that the Olympics could stay away from Europe for a lot longer than two Olympiads. Although it will be 44 years since Rome last staged the Games by the time the 2004 Games come around, the 1960 Olympics may still be considered too recent for the Eternal City to be given another chance. Of the three bidding cities who have already staged the Olympics, Athens and Stockholm, who hosted the 1896 and 1912 versions respectively, stand a far better chance in this regard. Another plus point said to be on Rome’s side is the presence at the bid’s helm of that wily street fighter, Primo Nebiolo, who heads the powerful International Amateur Athletic Federation (IAAF). But while he has proved very successful in the subtle art of enticing votes to ensure he has remained president of the IAAF since 1981, he has built up a noticeable resentment among many leading sports people with his well-recorded bullying tactics and often questionable procedures. Particularly in Europe, where people are perhaps more sensitive to such antics, Nebiolo’s influence could be more negative than positive. The bidding procedure has also been tightened up and stricter guidelines on presents and liberalities for IOC members were introduced at the last IOC session in Budapest. The African block, which has formed the fulcrum of Nebiolo’s support base in the past and has fallen for his particular persuasive methods, is also likely to back Cape Town if it can manage to convince the rest of the continent that its bid is truly one for all of Africa. Indeed if there is to be a European favourite then it should be Stockholm. It has all its facilities in place, and although it has opted to build a new Olympic stadium, it has a superb city environment, excellent public transport and a track record of organisational efficiency.
While Athens has strong historical ties to the Olympic Games it unfortunately missed its best chance when losing this year’s Centennial Games to Atlanta. Athens’ sentimental pull will now have to do battle with Cape Town’s far more alluring `missing ring factor’. Both South American cities share with Cape Town a similar lack of infrastructure and to an even greater degree, unpredictable economies. Rio also shares South Africa’s unenviable reputation for crime. But the truth is that, outside Europe at least, most people see the bid as Cape Town’s to lose. As Sandra Cress, competition manager for the football tournament in Atlanta who is visiting South Africa for the African Cup of Nations, says: `The feeling among the Atlanta Organising Committee is that Cape Town will win the bid if it gets its act together. It will only lose if it messes up badly.’ To mess up Cape Town will have to come up short on the technical requirements of the bid and that is something which Chris Ball, CEO of the Cape Town 2004 Olympic Bid Company, is adamant will not happen. With more than 400 professional people currently working on a voluntary basis on the technical aspects of the bid, and a lot of advice and expertise from Sydney and Atlanta, there should be no problems in this department. Cape Town and the other bidding cities must submit a candidature file to the IOC by August 15 this year. These files contain detailed answers to 532 questions across 19 broad themes relating to the organisation of the Games and the facilities to be provided. How well Cape Town has performed in this task will only be known once the IOC’s evaluation commission begins its work towards the end of the year. This commission, which was first used by the IOC to evaluate the candidates for the 2000 Olympic Games, will spend five days in each bidding city assessing the viability of the proposals put forward in the candidature file. It will then produce a report giving its assessment of each city on each theme in the file. The commission does not make recommendations on the choice of cities to the IOC.
Next April the IOC selection college, which is basically the IOC minus members from the countries of bidding cities, will then choose four of the 11 cities to go through to phase two of the campaign which is the full- blooded contest of wooing IOC members to try and secure their votes. The feeling is that if Cape Town can negotiate this hurdle the rest will be plain sailing. However, there is still the small matter of convincing the Cabinet to support the bid when Ball and his team present their case in April. Without a guarantee from the government the IOC will not accept the bid and it is common knowledge that there are still some influential ministers who are yet to be converted. The crucial issue will be the funding of the bid and the level of commitment and risk for the government. Ball is a banker, however, and if there is one thing he is convinced about, and very good at convincing others about too, is the economic viability of the bid. If he can deliver his usually ebullient message to the Cabinet and also convey the same information to the public at large (Berlin fared badly in the 2000 campaign largely because of opposition to its bid at home) then Cape Town will be well on its way to securing the greatest single event on the planet.